Which way Bihar will go

Neerja Chowdhury

Senior Political Commentator

Given Covid-19, will elections be held in Bihar in October? Will they be held online? Will the BJP-JD (U) alliance hold? These questions have been hanging out there unanswered, with the pandemic tightening its grip over many states.

After many weeks, Union Home Minister Amit Shah resurfaced in his earlier avatar as the BJP’s ace poll organiser and held a ‘virtual rally’ (VR) trying to connect with BJP workers and the public in Bihar.

Ostensibly, the meeting was meant to showcase the achievements of Modi-2. But Shah’s ‘VR’, kicking off the BJP’s poll campaign, showed that there is every indication of the Bihar polls being held as scheduled. The BJP is bestirring its units and Bhupendra Yadav, in charge of Bihar, flew into Patna to put in place the nitty-gritty of poll management. Party leaders are already talking about ‘mandal’ level mobilisation.

Like its strategy of putting ‘panna pramukhs’ in place in several states, the BJP is now identifying ‘influential’ people in every Assembly constituency of Bihar to influence the voters. It has already distributed ‘mandal pustikas’ in 1,000 mandals, seeking information about these potential influencers.

Bihar’s deputy CM and BJP leader Sushil Modi had floated the idea of holding online elections in Bihar. The possibility of the misuse of online polling needs to be spelt out, particularly in a largely rural state like Bihar, with feudal relationships still intact. Ordinary workers would find it very difficult to say ‘no’ to their employers—now more so in a situation of acute economic distress—to vote in a particular way. This would bring back memories of the ‘Old Bihar’, where it was commonplace to ‘loot’ the vote of the vulnerable.

The idea is going to meet with resistance, nationally and internationally. For the moment, the ECI and the government are silent. They are likely to hold a normal election, with ‘new norms’ in place of social distancing. But in all probability, there will be a slump in the voter turnout.

The BJP calculates that the party which can mobilise its supporters to come out will have the advantage. And that its organisational structure will make up for any shortcomings or voter unhappiness, with 28 lakh migrant workers having returned to their villages.

Next is the uneasy relationship between the BJP and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. Barring the short interregnum, between 2013-17 — when Nitish either fought alone in 2014 or went with the RJD in 2015—the JD (U) has been the BJP’s partner since its inception in 2003. Nitish had played his cards skilfully. He used his clean image and credentials of being Bihar’s ‘Sushasan babu’ to remain the CM. Luck also favoured him. For, in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, he drove a hard bargain with the BJP to remain the senior partner. The BJP did not want to rock the alliance, having suffered setbacks in Gujarat, Karnataka, and with the TDP deserting it in Andhra Pradesh, and some in the Congress making noises about the return of Nitish to the secular ‘Grand Alliance’.

Is luck now running out on Nitish? If anything, Shah’s ‘VR’ underscored the inherent tensions in the alliance. The BJP chose to make it a party event when it should have been an NDA affair. Shah referred to Nitish only once. This is in contrast to the uncharacteristic dash Shah had made to Patna in 2018 to sort out the differences between the two parties, and claim that Nitish was ‘firmly’ with the NDA.

Today, many in the BJP feel the party should go it alone in the coming elections, for Nitish, who was losing ground even before Covid-19, does not enjoy the credibility he once had, eroded further by the way he has handled the migrant problem, initially resisting their return to Bihar. Of course, the situation was one for which no one was prepared or equipped, and only a few governments like Kerala have fared better. But Nitish was one who was expected to pull out all stops to put a medical infrastructure in place, requisitioning schools, halls and anganwadi centres to provide relief that is now going to be needed in Bihar with a large number of migrants testing positive. Or to leverage his position with the Centre to get foodgrains lying in the godowns released for those who face hunger. This is a crying need and could have catapulted him on the national stage once again. Instead, Nitish and the BJP seem to be relying on old, ‘tried and tested’ ways of conducting politics like transferring some money into the accounts of the farmers and the poor just before elections, and of course, on Modi’s image.

Will the BJP take the risk of going without Nitish? What will be the political fallout of a large number of people falling ill or dying of illness or hunger, were that to happen in the coming weeks?

Or will it opt for an incremental approach of cornering a larger number of seats in the election to relegate Nitish to the position of a junior partner, and making a post-poll bid for CMship, if the alliance is victorious? It may calculate that it would be difficult for Nitish to go back to the ‘other’ side, without a huge loss of face. In any case, the RJD-Congress alliance is not what it was in 2015.

The BJP is turning its attention from an escalating health crisis to ‘good’ — or bad — ‘old politics’ once again. Weaning away Congress MLAs in Gujarat to win an additional Rajya Sabha seat, and the Rajasthan Congress making similar charges against it—these are only the tip of the iceberg of its ongoing plan to capture control all over India.

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