Whisper of ‘Brahmin conspiracy’ proved fatal for BJP in Karnataka

Saba Naqvi

Senior Journalist

After the Karnataka reversal, the BJP needs to rethink its electoral strategy of reducing local leaders in Assembly elections to background actors and making Prime Minister Narendra Modi the centrepiece of every state poll campaign. This strategy had not worked in Himachal Pradesh last year, when some local leaders rebelled even as the BJP high command foisted its choices on the state party unit and made the campaign revolve around the PM and national issues.

The BJP lost to the Congress narrowly in terms of vote share in Himachal Pradesh. Now, it has been defeated very decisively by the Congress in Karnataka. But the thread of unhappiness among traditional local leaders and the rebellion by some of them runs through both defeats. The consequences of the Karnataka loss are more serious as it is a cash-rich state that can give the Congress momentum ahead of the Assembly elections later this year. The defeat has also exposed the shortcomings of the ‘double engine’ slogan that the BJP promotes so vigorously, even as the prime-ministerial persona has been dented, at least for now.

But there’s a deeper problem that this high command culture creates in states where the traditional BJP leadership is of an older vintage than what has emerged after Modi’s 2014 triumph. A top-down approach means that the equations established on the ground, based on traditional caste linkages and networks — predating the focus on Modi and the strategy of unleashing Hindutva foot soldiers — get unsettled. This is precisely what unfolded in Karnataka. Not only was there deep resentment at what was perceived as the undermining of leaders of the ‘old BJP’ belonging to the powerful Lingayat community, but it was also spoken about as a ‘conspiracy of Brahmins’, allegedly led by BL Santosh, the general secretary (organisation) of the BJP — the contact person between the party’s national leadership and the RSS — who is from Karnataka.

The whisper of this ‘Brahmin conspiracy’ proved fatal for the BJP in a state where all caste groups are conscious of their rights and entitlements. This was all the more damaging as the Congress was playing the social justice card, and Siddaramaiah, its most charismatic mass leader, openly spoke about the humiliation of the Lingayat leaders of the BJP.

Many Lingayats, the traditional caste group on which the BJP had built its Karnataka presence, did switch to the Congress, as did large numbers of Scheduled Castes and Tribes. The Congress fielded 46 Lingayat candidates; 37 won. The BJP fielded 69; just 15 won. The last-minute pre-election rejig of reservation quotas by the BJP to offset caste restiveness also backfired. The Congress, conversely, got support from all castes and communities.

The larger question now confronting the BJP is whether a party campaign can and/or should be built around one individual in a country of regional and linguistic diversity. How much appeal can a Prime Minister who is speaking in Hindi actually have in the rural hinterland of Karnataka, where the BJP performed dismally? True, he is the head of government with a pan-India image, but is that really a sensible choice for elections whose outcomes are determined by local concerns?

Three crucial state elections take place later this year in the Hindi belt, where there are no linguistic barriers between the PM and the people. But there are questions about the state leaders and whether some of them would be allowed a free hand. Take Rajasthan, where there is a full-blown battle within the ruling Congress between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and former Deputy CM Sachin Pilot. The BJP could have a good chance of winning, but things are as complicated for its Rajasthan unit as they are for the Congress. The most popular mass leader in the Rajasthan BJP is former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, but the central leadership is believed to have reservations about her. In March this year, the BJP named Lok Sabha MP CP Joshi as the state unit president; he is not known to have good ties with Raje. So, no one can predict whether it would be a Modi campaign in Rajasthan or one led by a state leader.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP has no leader to match Congress Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. BJP state unit president Arun Sao recently stated that Modi is the most popular leader in the state, and so, presumably, the PM could drive the campaign. The influence of Raman Singh, three-time BJP Chief Minister (2003 to 2018), is believed to have waned and the RSS and its nominees (such as Arun Sao) are now in the driver’s seat with less than six months to go for the elections. RSS control, increased Hindutva mobilisation and positing the PM’s persona now appear to be the formula as opposed to the Vajpayee-era tradition of nurturing strong state leaders.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan was one of those state leaders, but is now serving his fourth term (in this term, he returned to power after defections from the Congress). He would be facing anti-incumbency, but, presumably, it’s too close to the voting day to replace him. He has evolved a persona of appearing subservient to Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, whom he has tried to emulate. There has recently been a high-profile defection from the BJP to the Congress (usually, it’s the other way round) and Madhya Pradesh will have a contest.

Post Karnataka outcome, the BJP must realise that it was the intensely local nature of the campaign and strong state leaders that worked for the Congress. A prime-ministerial blitzkrieg could not retrieve the situation.

It’s a great irony that a party that once mocked the high command culture of the Congress has created such a mighty one for itself. This can be an advantage in a national campaign, but it can certainly backfire in a state contest.

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