Why India counts in Maldivian political tussle

Ex-President Yameen has always been playing a dubious role with regard to India. When he was in power, he claimed that he was following India-first policy. But all his policy decisions were aimed against India. Yameen recently nuanced his stand. He says he is not against India but pro-Maldives. As Yameen’s ‘India Out’ campaign fizzles out, he is trying again to fall back on religion. With this objective, the cadres of his party targeted the Yoga Day celebrations in Male.

CHAOTIC: Yoga Day function was disrupted in Maldives in a bid to politicise the event. Reuters

Anand Kumar

Associate Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses

THE disruption of the International Yoga Day function in the Maldives last month was a blatant attempt to mix religion with politics. People linked to Opposition parties tried to sabotage and politicise the event. The International Day of Yoga is being celebrated in that country since 2015 after a resolution was passed by the UN General Assembly in December 2014. At that time, Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, now the Leader of the Opposition, was in power.

This year, efforts have been made to mobilise people against practising yoga, which is being presented as a Hindu mode of worship and a practice closely associated with the Hindu religion. To oppose the celebration, Ilmuveringe Gulhun, an organisation of religious scholars, wrote a letter to the Maldivian Ministry of Islamic Affairs. After that, the Male city council cancelled its permission to hold the Yoga Day event in the Rasfannu area of the city. As a result, the event was moved to the Galolhu national stadium. The celebration organised by the Youth and Sports Ministry of the Maldives and the Indian Cultural Centre was, however, stormed by some people who were holding flags that was earlier seen at another Opposition protest rally. The event was attended by Indian envoy Munu Mahawar, other diplomats and members of the public.

The disruption of this event should not be seen in isolation. It is closely linked to the ‘India Out’ campaign that former President Yameen has been running. Through this campaign, Yameen has claimed that he is protesting against the purported presence of Indian military in the Maldives.

Even when Mohamed Nasheed was President after the introduction of multi-party democracy in the country, mobilisation was done against him on the basis of religion. Subsequently, he was removed from power in what is generally seen as a coup d’état.

Yameen came to power after Mohamed Waheed completed his term as a stop-gap President. Yameen is a pro-China leader. He took several steps favouring China during his last term. He accepted China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This allowed China to launch several mega projects in the Maldives, including the Sinamalé Bridge. The Maldives became a founding member of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It contemplated signing a free trade agreement with China. Most importantly, Yameen passed a law which allowed foreign powers to buy land in the Maldives. This legislation was basically aimed at helping China buy land in the Maldives. Thankfully, now this legislation has been repealed under President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.

Yameen is presently leading the Opposition alliance of Progressive Party of Maldives and People’s National Congress. He has also spent some time in jail on corruption charges. However, he has been released as the charges against him could not be proven. Yameen, however, still faces money laundering charges. If convicted on these charges, he can still go to jail and could be barred from contesting the presidential elections that are due in 2023.

Yameen and his ‘India Out’ campaign are allegedly funded by the Chinese who have fallen out of favour in the Maldives. Yameen is trying to make a comeback in the Maldivian politics but he is not favourably placed. The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), to which President Solih belongs, went for parliamentary polls alone and commands huge majority in parliament. Since then, there has been no significant change in the political situation in the country.

Factionalism has developed in the MDP. There is a faction loyal to former President Nasheed, but Solih enjoys the support of the majority of the MDP parliamentarians. Solih recently announced his candidature for the 2023 elections. Minister of Economic Affairs Fayyaz Ismail, who was supported by Solih, has won the MDP chairperson’s seat with 58 per cent vote share against MP Imthiyaz Fahmy. Besides, the MDP is still ruling in alliance. If the alliance continues, the MDP’s victory is a distinct possibility.

Several South Asian countries are facing an economic meltdown unleashed by the Covid pandemic. But the Maldives has managed the situation well. It has faced no major financial difficulty. India also helped the Maldives in this effort. The Covid vaccines provided by India on priority helped the Maldives vaccinate its staff in the resorts. This has helped tourists come back. Tourism has revived and is doing well. India is now the number one tourist-sender country to the Maldives.

Yameen is desperately trying to destabilise the situation. In this effort, he is trying to vilify India. First, he tried to arouse public ire over the presence of Indian military in the Maldives, but people did not buy his argument. His ‘India Out’ campaign never enjoyed great popularity in the Maldives. Maldivian people saw the politics behind it. Moreover, whatever support Yameen was able to garner, the Solih government has managed to neutralise that by launching ‘Baakeenuvey’, a campaign in favour of India. The government has now also banned the ‘India Out’ campaign as it was harming its diplomatic relationship with India. The Maldives did join the Islamic world last month in expressing concern over the ‘derogatory remarks’ made by some leaders of the BJP regarding the Prophet, but it later welcomed the Indian government’s ‘prompt action’ against these leaders.

Yameen has always been playing a dubious role towards India. When he was in power, he claimed that he is also following India-first policy. But all his policy decisions were aimed against India. Recently, Yameen has once again nuanced his stand towards India. Yameen now says that he not anti-India but pro-Maldives. As Yameen’s ‘India Out’ campaign fizzles out, he is trying again to fall back on religion. With this objective, the cadres of his party targeted the Yoga Day celebrations in Male. President Solih fully understands the game-plan of Yameen. To shift the debate in the domestic politics of the Maldives from India-centric issues, he has announced his candidature for the presidential elections.

Maldivians hold their religion (Sunni Islam) and sovereignty of their country close to their heart. Yameen is falsely trying to project that both are facing threat under the rule of the present government which is friendly to India. He is trying to mobilise people on these issues and hopes that Maldivians will be swayed by his narrative. However, so far this doesn’t appear to be the case and if the MDP manages its factionalism, it is likely to come back to power.