Why Nitish is emerging as Oppn spearhead

Neerja Chowdhury

Senior Political Commentator

Nitish Kumar’s three-day visit to Delhi to meet Opposition leaders has grabbed eyeballs, not because it led to any concrete outcome but because Nitish, more than any other Opposition leader today, is being seen as the one who could be acceptable to the maximum number of leaders to head an anti-BJP formation in 2024.

His meetings — with Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala (in jail), Mulayam Singh Yadav (in hospital) along with Akhilesh Yadav, and Sharad Pawar — were to create goodwill for himself.

To still the fears of other Opposition leaders, Nitish Kumar has repeatedly emphasised that he is not a contender for prime-ministership. He is taking a leaf out of VP Singh's book. VP, who was PM for 11 months in 1989-90 at the head of a widest possible alliance made up of forces from the Right to the Left, went on to defeat Rajiv Gandhi despite his unprecedented 414 Lok Sabha-member majority. VP would also declaim that he was not out to become PM. He knew the value of renunciation in politics. Though the country has changed since then and money has become the yardstick of success, a large majority of Indians still respect those who are not seen to be hankering for power.

Nitish has said that the BJP can be reduced to 50 seats in 2024 if the Opposition comes together. The arithmetic speaks for itself. It is well known that the BJP got only got 31 per cent in 2014 but it notched up 282 seats because most of the rest were fragmented (the NDA parties polled around 17 per cent of the vote share). The figures are also a reminder that even in the most adverse of circumstances, 53 per cent of the voters had still voted for parties other than those aligned to Narendra Modi.

When the Congress was in power as the dominant force, it used to win handsomely — in the first past the post system we have — because the Opposition to it was really divided.

Several Opposition satraps eye the Delhi throne and are positioning themselves for the role, were such an opportunity to arise. But they are also playing the national card for another reason: to consolidate their grip over their respective states, which may be loosening. This applies as much to K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) as to Mamata Banerjee. KCR has mounted a massive ad campaign, reaching out to a national audience on all that he has done for Telangana as CM. He is set to launch a national party: the Bharat Rashtra Samithi. KCR’s chief worry is to retain his own state. Talk to ordinary people in Telangana and many will tell you that KCR has lost ground. It is the BJP, not the Congress, that’s the ascendant force in the state. With a national party under his belt, he may hope to play on Telugu pride with the message that a ‘Telugu bidda’ can become the nation’s leader. And this may keep a section of his supporters with him.

There is a buzz in Hyderabad that KCR might dissolve the Telangana Assembly and opt for a mid-term poll. The idea would be to cut his losses and try and come back to power before the situation deteriorates further.

Like KCR, Mamata Banerjee would like to emerge as the leader of a unified Opposition. But the possibility of leading the country — whether or not she is able to do it — can help consolidate West Bengal behind her. After Nitish's courtesy calls in the capital, Mamata again made a unity pitch from Kolkata — lest the initiative slipped out of her hands. Of late, she had been criticised for ‘softening’ her stance towards the BJP by showing an inclination towards Droupadi Murmu’s candidature as President and abstaining from the vice-presidential elections, despite the slugfest she had with Jagdeep Dhankhar when he was Governor in West Bengal.

Nitish also met Arvind Kejriwal, the man being watched with interest today as he expands his footprint in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana. But few will accept him as the leader of a united Opposition in 2024. Yet, at the popular level, though it is early days yet, it is Kejriwal who is seen to be capable of creating an alternative to Modi. It will be a marathon race if he can stay the course. Kejriwal, however, has stated that his party will go it alone in 2024.This would suit the BJP. For, a triangular contest in the next General Election would be advantage BJP, dividing the Opposition vote.

What the Congress does in the coming months will be important. Will the Bharat Jodo Yatra, that Rahul Gandhi has embarked on, help Rahul transit from a ‘Pappu’ to a ‘serious leader’? As of now, few would accept Rahul as the leader of the united Opposition. Given this reality, it would suit the Congress to support Nitish as leader. It would bring on board all regional parties which find the Congress, particularly with a Nehru-Gandhi scion in the lead role, as unacceptable.

Sonia Gandhi may not want a Congress leader other than Rahul as the consensus choice of the entire Opposition. For, s/he will become a rival power centre to Rahul. This could pose a problem in the future. Supporting Nitish would obviate that problem. Coming as he does from a socialist background — and is not a former Congressman, like Mamata Banerjee or Sharad Pawar, with deep links inside the Congress — he is less likely to hijack a section of the Congress.

Nitish is in his seventies. He is endowed with administrative and political experience, having been chief minister eight times, even as he has shifted alliances four times and may have to live that down. He may not be a knight in shining armour, but he is best placed to lead because he is least threatening to the maximum number of parties, including the Congress.

The leadership of the Opposition is not likely to be decided in a hurry. But the Opposition can start on creating a counter-narrative to the one put out by the BJP. It can start to work on one-on-one contests against the BJP, wherever possible. For, that is the most critical nugget in the fight against the ruling party. 

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