Why Sri Lanka may soon slip into the abyss

Sasanka Perera

Dean, Social Sciences, South Asian University, New Delhi

Sri Lankans have been experiencing severe shortages of essential goods and services for months. Fuel, cooking gas and milk powder are in short supply and the prices of available foods have skyrocketed, making it difficult for many in the country to eat three meals a day. Hospitals have cancelled non-essential surgeries and many doctors in the public sector have resorted to directly pleading for donations from citizens to keep their hospitals afloat.

Sri Lanka has not experienced this level of a near-complete collapse ever — not even in the worst times of its civil war years. In short, the food and energy security of the country have been seriously compromised and the quality of life is being downgraded daily with a seemingly uncontrollable inflation — at present, calculated by Johns Hopkins University’s Steven Hanke, to be near 132 per cent as opposed to the last official estimate of 21.50 per cent. If one is searching for a classic example of a failed state, one needs to look no further than Lanka.

Lanka’s current economic turmoil is linked to numerous conditions. As a country heavily dependent on imports for everything, from medicines to food and fuel, its dwindling foreign exchange reserves is the main reason for the present situation. Also, tourism, a main source of foreign exchange, has plummeted since the Easter bomb attacks in 2019, compounded by the consequences of Covid-19.

Beyond this, relentless government borrowing over the years from international markets without adequate policies for repayment and the President’s decision to offer unnecessary tax cuts in 2019 have denied the much-needed income to the state. The slashing of value-added tax from 15 per cent to 8 per cent lost over 1 million taxpayers.

A slew of white elephant projects undertaken with Chinese loans, spanning over the previous phases of the Rajapaksa rule, have added to this burden. The Rajapaksa International Airport in Mattala is now called ‘the world’s emptiest airport’ due to the absence of traffic; and, the Hambantota harbour has been leased to a state-owned Chinese company for 99 years. The Lotus Tower in Colombo, touted as South Asia’s tallest structure with a revolving restaurant at its apex, now remains non-functional. As if this was not enough, President Rajapaksa suddenly introduced a ban on the import of chemical fertilisers in the name of promoting organic agriculture, severely impacting agricultural production.

It is in the context of these deprivations that the ongoing protests began over two months ago, initially as small groups of people protesting in urban centres in the evenings. They were politely asking the government to give them back their lives. Since four weeks ago, these protests have become more concrete, vociferous, insistent and focused, uniting people under the slogan, “Gota Go Home”. Their main demand is that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa must resign.

The main protest site in front of the Presidential Secretariat and the nearby Galle Face Green is popularly dubbed ‘Gota Go Gama’ (get lost Gota village) with a permanent presence of protesters. Organically, it has evolved as an active community, with iconic infrastructure ranging from a movie theatre named Tear Gas Cinema, a library with donated books, a medical centre, a legal aid centre, a space for artists to undertake work related to the protests, a speakers’ forum known as People’s University, a community kitchen, and a public toilet complex named after a well-known government apologist. All these indicate the protesters’ intent to stay at the site in the long term until their demand for regime change is assured.

‘Gota Go Gama’ has motivated people across the island to set up similar sites. But all are based on three crucial considerations: protests will always be non-violent; protests will not be affiliated with existing political parties; and protests will continue until the President and Prime Minister have resigned and a new government capable of handling the present crisis is installed.

From the beginning, the main protest site became a space of equality where Christians, Buddhists, Muslims and Hindus engage in public worship and freely interact with people of different faiths without conflict. This is unusual in the context of Lanka’s divisive politics. The site is an ideal for the future Lanka that the youthful protesters want to create. What is also important is that the protests, attracting massive crowds daily, have been peaceful, civilised and often quite creative.

On May 9, 2022, regime supporters who came to visit former PM Mahinda Rajapaksa, the President’s elder brother, spilled out of The Temple Trees, the official residence of the PM, and began assaulting protesters and burning their temporary infrastructure. This was completely unprovoked violence in the presence of the police and the military amidst a state of emergency in a high security zone, emanating directly from the PM’s official residence. The tactic backfired soon when other citizens came to the support of the protesters. By the end of the day, many vehicles that ferried the marauders were destroyed, over 60 houses across the country belonging to the ruling party lawmakers, including the Rajapaksas’ ancestral house, were burnt, and nine people had died. That evening, the PM resigned and shifted to the heavily fortified naval base in Trincomalee the next day.

As a way out, the President appointed former PM Ranil Wickremasinghe as the new PM on May 12. Wickremasinghe had led his party to a shameful electoral defeat in 2020, securing only one seat in the parliament. Like the Rajapaksas, Wickremasinghe is also despised by the protesters, given his involvement in political violence in the 1990s, protection of corruption-accused political allies during his short-lived 2015 government and a reputation as self-centred dealmaker. In this situation, the appointment of Wickremasinghe is not only unethical and anti-democratic but also vastly unpopular across the country. It is seen as a way to saving the Rajapaksas rather than as a means to resurrecting the country, given Wickremasinghe’s role in ensuring that crucial cases involving the Rajapaksas never went to court during his earlier tenure as PM.

What is so unfortunate is that Lanka has no serious political options for a dependable leadership within the 225 members in its present parliament. So, with the economic crisis still nowhere near resolution and the Rajapaksas being on the back foot, Wickremasinghe’s elevation to premiership is not a solution but a political drama yet again imposed on Lanka’s hapless citizenry that is already experiencing widespread deprivation and pain.

Lanka is literally at the edge of a precipice, and it will not take much to throw it deep into a dark abyss, with significant local and regional consequences.

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