Why urban polls reflect deeper political, economic currents

Elections to the city governments that include 10 municipal corporations, municipal councils and municipal committees in Haryana have been decisively won by the BJP. In the past around two months, the Opposition, including the Congress, regional parties and the Left, has failed to secure a single mayoral seat not just in Haryana but also in Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP has trounced the entire Opposition. This should send a clear message to the Opposition parties that the urban scene is changing and they need to buckle up fast.

In all three states, the Congress has intermittently held power at the state level. Yet, its failure to win even a single mayoral seat and the abysmally poor performance in the municipal council and nagar panchayat elections point to internal disarray and a broader lack of vision regarding urban governance. This electoral setback reflects a deeper issue: the Congress’ inability to craft a compelling urban strategy that resonates with voters.

These states follow a direct election system for mayors, in which voters directly elect both the councillors and mayors. The BJP has been promoting this practice wherever it comes to power, advocating a presidential-style mayoral election.

In Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, which also follow a direct election for the post of mayor, the Opposition parties have failed to reach even double-digit figures in the number of elected mayors. The same pattern extends to municipal councils and nagar panchayats, where the Opposition finds itself in disarray.

Since urban development is a state subject, states have their own method of electing city governments. In Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal, Kerala, etc, the mayor is elected by the councillors. But to attribute the BJP’s success in getting its mayoral candidates elected to direct election would be half true. The processes set in motion through the urbanisation journey need to be captured for such victories.

What explains BJP's dominance in the urban elections? Over the past three decades, two major shifts have shaped India's urban transformation, keeping cities in a constant state of flux. The first is the economic liberalisation of the 1990s, which altered the socio-economic fabric of urban areas. This transition, marked by the rise of neoliberal policies, has led to new power structures and systemic urban inequalities. Migration has been a defining feature of this phase, with urbanisation driven more by poverty than by industrial growth.

The second is a sharp segregation in cities and cultural spaces being filled through communal polarisation. The 2023 India segregation report of over 1.5 million neighbourhoods brings out the systematic nature of urban exclusion and segregation. Rather than being based on livelihood issues, the urban spatial reality was dominated by ethnic and parochial demands and the creation of such narratives.

Neoliberalism, despite its promise of free markets, has often required state intervention to facilitate private capital's dominance over urban spaces. This has manifested in various ways — weakening the autonomy of elected municipal governments, privatising basic services, reducing state involvement in urban planning and increasing reliance on public-private partnerships, especially in infrastructure.

The result has been the gentrification of cities, with spaces restructured to favour elitist consumption while displacing marginalised communities.

National urban programmes like the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, Smart Cities Mission, Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation and Swachh Bharat Mission aim at reshaping urban landscapes. These initiatives, too, have intensified socio-spatial inequalities, leading to economic fragmentation and displacement of the urban poor.

The neoliberal model has led to the closure of many small-scale industries and retail businesses, restrictive legal frameworks targeting informal workers, privatisation of essential services like water and sanitation and restricted access to public spaces.

Despite facing these hardships, a significant section of the urban poor continues to support the BJP. The question arises: why do those most affected by these policies remain loyal to the party that is part of the larger problem?

One key factor is the BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's (RSS) systematic influence over urban cultural spaces. The secular fabric of cities, once shaped by an organised working class, has eroded. Over 90 per cent of the urban workforce now operates in the informal sector, lacking the bargaining power once held by labour unions. This shift has left workers vulnerable to both economic exploitation and ideological manipulation. The BJP and RSS have capitalised on this vacuum, using regional and communal narratives to shape urban politics.

North Indian cities today are paradoxical spaces — centres of massive exploitation, where essential services like clean air, drinking water and affordable housing remain out of reach for many. Yet, the urban poor continue to back the BJP.

Meanwhile, the Opposition remains disconnected from city-level politics, focussing instead on state and national elections.

The BJP is working towards implementing a model municipal Act through the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, pushing for direct mayoral elections nationwide — a system that appears to favour the party electorally.

I was inducted as a member of the task force to write the model municipal Act. But the ministry soon realised that a wrong person has been nominated — one who would challenge its ominous designs.

That said, this signifies an important aspect — that the Central government is taking urban governance seriously and intends to move ahead with its stated design.

For the Opposition parties, the time to act is now. This is India's urban century and the largest demographic shifts will take place within a few decades. The largest number of people living in urban areas will be in India soon.

In this context, urban governance cannot remain an afterthought or be through a top-down approach.

The Opposition needs to reimagine city spaces, focussing on equitable development, inclusive policies and fair distribution of urban resources. Without a coherent urban strategy, its electoral struggles in cities will only deepen.