Community transmission can be delayed, not stopped: ICMR

Aditi Tandon

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, March 23

The first national study on COVID-19 pandemic in India has shown that the transmission of the virus in the community can be delayed by early passenger screening and social distancing measures, but it can not be stopped completely.

In a research published in ICMR journal on Monday, the authors, including Council’s chief epidemiologist R Gangakhedkar, say social distancing will flatten the curve and reduce the case load. They, however, conclude that community transmission will happen eventually. Community transmission is a stage where infections are reported by large local populations with no history of travel to COVID affected nations. Currently India only has infections in people with travel history abroad or their contacts.

“Social distancing in India will flatten the viral curve. Mathematical modelling by ICMR suggests that entry screening of travellers with disease symptoms can delay the introduction of the virus into the community by one to three weeks. Strictly implemented, social distancing like home quarantine of symptomatic and suspected cases will reduce overall expected cases by 62 per cent and peak number of cases by 89 per cent, flattening the curve and providing more opportunities for interventions,” the study says.

But it adds that these projections are based on optimistic assessment of the virus reproductive rate being 1.5 (one infected person transmits to 1.5) and in a pessimistic scenario of reproductive rate being 4 and asymptomatic infections being half as infectious as symptomatic, the projected impact of 62 pc reduction in cases will fall to 2 per cent.

ICMR scientists said India could expect eight to 10 severe and 40 to 50 non-severe Covid cases for every death. “In a closed setting, we may expect 26 per cent of the entire population to get infected and one in 450 infected individuals to die.”

NO proof OF COVID-19 BEING AIRBORNE: WHO

Poonam Khetarpal, Regional Director, WHO, South East Asia, said there were no reports of airborne spread: “Based on current evidence, we know Covid-19 appears to spread mostly through respiratory droplets (produced when a sick person coughs) and close contact...More analysis is needed to understand its transmission.”

NEWSPAPER HANDLING SAFE: Health ministry

The govt said newspaper handling was safe as was handling other stuff with standard precautions. It said environmental and personal hygiene measures advised by the WHO and Health Ministry were enough to stay protected. “Sanitise hands, wash them with soap every two hours and maintain social distancing,” said ICMR chief Balram Bhargava.

HEALTHY PEOPLE DO NOT NEED MASKS: WHO, ICMR

Maria Van Kherkove, WHO’s lead epidemiologist, says: “This virus is transmitted through droplets which come out of people’s noses and mouths if they cough, sneeze or talk.... people who are in the communities do not need to wear medical masks unless they themselves are sick as this prevents them from infecting someone else.”

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