No dramatic surge in deaths during Covid, shows govt data

Aditi Tandon

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New Delhi, May 3

The number of registered deaths in India due to all causes increased by 4.74 lakh from 76.4 lakh in 2019 to 81.2 lakh in 2020, representing a rise of 6.28 per cent between the pre-Covid period and the first year of the pandemic. The corresponding increase between the previous years was higher—9.92 per cent from 2018 to 2019 and 7 per cent from 2017 to 2018.

The number of deaths registered between 2018 and 2019 rose by 6,90,469, higher than 4,74,806 between 2019 and 2020, reveals the Registrar General of India’s (RGI) Civil Registration System (CRS) Report-2020 published on Tuesday.

“This is authentic data fed by 2.91 lakh state-level units. It shows there was no dramatic rise in deaths during Covid, unlike what several studies based on absurd modelling concluded. We urge researchers to stop using these models and depend on the RGI report, which is based on robust reporting mechanisms under a law,” NITI Aayog Member (Health) VK Paul told The Tribune today.

The Lancet and the Science journals recently estimated excess deaths in India in Covid years, with the government rejecting both. The CRS report says that of the 81.2 lakh registered deaths in 2020, 18,11,688 were medically certified deaths. Of these 18.11 lakh deaths, 1,48,994 were due to Covid.

Overall, from the start of the pandemic until April 28 this year, there were 5,23,693 Covid deaths (1,48,994 in 2020, 3,32,492 in 2021 and 42,207 in 2022). The report trends also reveal that the death rate has been steadily falling. “It has fallen from 14.9 per 1,000 in 1971 to 6.2 per 1,000 in 2018 to 6 per 1,000 in 2020,” said Atul Kotwal, Executive Director, National Health Systems Resources Centre of the Health Ministry.

Punjab and Chandigarh lead the country in terms of mandatory registration of deaths within 21 days. Of 2,27,158 deaths in Punjab in 2020, 2,29,846 (98.8 per cent) were registered in the first 21 days. In Chandigarh, the rate was 97.5 per cent. Haryana (93.3 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (91.9 per cent) are at fourth and eighth position.

Decline in births in 2020

• Registered births decreased to 2.42 crore in 2020 from 2.48 crore in 2019
• Of the total registered births, the share of males and females was 52.0% and 48.0%
• The number of registered stillbirths decreased from 1.66 lakh in 2019 to 1.60 lakh in 2020
• Share of registered stillbirths in rural and urban area is 40.8% and 57.9%