PLA’s advances in modern warfare a big challenge

Despite being neighbours with a border dispute, the militaries of India and China, ironically, have followed different trajectory as far as advances in military technology and war concepts are concerned. While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) kept its sights high tracking advances of the US military, the Indian military kept its sights low, being focussed on Pakistan, unmindful that the PLA would one day emerge as its primary threat.

Following the US’ 1991 Gulf War against Iraq, the PLA sought to match the US military, albeit asymmetrically, being conscious of its technology limitations. India, on the other hand, attempted to emulate the US military’s war concepts, unmindful of its own massive technology lag. Sadly, once the Indian Army got involved in internal stability operations in Jammu and Kashmir starting 1991, preparations for hot war took back seat.

Today, while the PLA is at the cutting edge of modern warfare, the Indian military follows the outdated US military’s 1986 war concept called Air-Land Battle and plans to emulate its Multi Domain Operations (MDO) into the future. Interestingly, the MDO is being replaced by US’ Joint All Domain Operations (JADO). The rough PLA equivalents of US’ MDO and JADO are its informatised and intelligentised wars.

While I will speak on PLA’s asymmetric understanding of deterrence and its capability to fight three distinct wars, namely, information, informatized and intelligentized at the 8th Military Literature Festival, two prominent examples will help highlight China’s unique approach to defence and security.

One, the lessons learnt by the PLA from the US’ 1991 Gulf War (Operation Desert Storm) against Iraq which was described by global military observers as a ‘shock and awe’ campaign. Three things in the US’ war -- its battle networks (software system which connected sensors to shooters), use of space for Intelligence, Reconnaissance and Surveillance (ISR) and guidance of precision weapons, and precision weapons itself -- ensured that a middle power like Iraq was defeated by 44 days of US’ air campaign with the land war reduced to 100 hours of mopping up operations. So, the PLA challenge was to match US’ battle networks, its technologically advanced air power and space capabilities, and precision weapons.

The PLA answer to US’ battle networks and satellites was the use of cyber weapons to block, destroy and corrupt them by powerful viruses. By 2020, while the US military was fighting small wars in the Middle East, the PLA developed virtual autonomy in its software systems and communication networks by using Artificial Intelligence (AI). This was a leap over the US military since the PLA could now comb through vast amounts of sensor data to identify targets and offer viable options to its commanders.

Moreover, since China could not match US technology prowess in its combat aircraft, it focused on two things -- missiles of all hues and drones. Today, the PLA has the largest inventory of missiles in the world and is a global leader in drone technology. And China’s focus on miniaturisation helped in bringing unprecedented lethality to its guided weapons at long ranges, as well as develop better software weapons for cyber-attacks.

By 2012, it was clear to the Pentagon that the PLA had matched the US military’s exceptional strengths. For this reason, the Pentagon announced its third offset strategy in 2014 to undo the PLA’s capability by using AI and autonomy.

Regarding security, it was clear to China that it could not match US’ more than 750 military bases across the world to safeguard its massive sea trade. China is the world largest manufacturing nation and biggest trading partner with many of the 193 nations in the world. So, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in 2022. The GSI underlines the importance of indivisible security against the US’ concept of security being a zero-sum game.

Today, China has stakes in some 160 seaports in the world which are connected by its Maritime Silk Road (sea version of its Belt and Road Initiative). Under the MSR, China will provide hardware and software cyberspace connectivity for development of the partner nation which in turn will work cooperatively with the PLA under the GSI to help secure Chinese assets, people, infrastructure and interests in the BRI nations. Since the MSR runs close to the traditional sea lanes of communications through which Chinese commercial sea trade passes, the PLA hopes to keep a close watch on its trade from threats from the US military, its allies and partner nations like India.

Interestingly, by its GSI concept, China has breached the US’ Monroe Doctrine without firing a shot. According to this doctrine, the US would not allow any outside power’s military bases and influence in western hemisphere. By inaugurating a mega seaport in Peru built using Chinese money and expertise during the recent 31st APEC summit, Xi Jinping signalled China’s growing influence in US’ traditional sphere of dominance. The Peru port in South America will help Latin American nations to cut sea time of its commercial vessels to China by 20 per cent. Thus, asymmetrically, China has done what the Soviet Union failed to do by the 1963 missile crisis which had brought the two superpowers close to a nuclear war.

Now that China has emerged as a great power largely responsible for the turbulence in global geopolitics, it is necessary that the Indian military devote attention to PLA’s advances in modern warfare.

The writer is author of the book ‘The Last War: How AI Will Shape India’s Final Showdown With China’