AAP’s Delhi debacle: A silver lining for Congress

The Aam Aadmi Party’s defeat in the Delhi Assembly election has brought a glimmer of hope for the Congress party. Despite securing only 6 per cent of the vote share and failing to win any seats for the third consecutive time, Congress leaders are choosing to focus on the bigger picture.

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AAP’s “Delhi model”, which was once touted as a blueprint for national success, has been dismantled. This development could potentially hinder the party’s expansion into other states. Moreover, Arvind Kejriwal’s own loss in the election has only added to the Congress party’s sense of optimism.

In Delhi, the Congress party’s traditional vote bank shifted entirely to AAP. However, in other states, Kejriwal’s party has consistently posed a challenge to the Congress, slicing into its vote share and weakening its position. With AAP’s power now concentrated only in Punjab, its resources for national expansion may be significantly restricted.

The Congress party had managed to keep AAP at bay in Punjab in 2017, limiting it to 20 seats in the 117-member Assembly and forming a government under Captain Amarinder Singh. but the tables turned in 2022 when AAP stormed to power with 92 seats. Since then, Punjab Congress leaders have been vocal about keeping AAP at arm’s length.

AAP’s rise in Punjab has also unsettled the Congress party in neighbouring Haryana, where it was hoping for a comeback after a decade out of power. “AAP presents itself as a party of change, promising free electricity, free water, free bus rides for women, and direct cash incentives. It capitalises on high hopes and eats into the Congress’ vote share wherever we are positioned as the main challenger. In the end, it benefits BJP,” a senior Congress leader from Haryana noted.

This pattern has repeated itself across multiple states. In the 2022 Goa Assembly election, AAP won two seats with 6.77 per cent of the vote share, denting the Congress’ comeback chances. Similarly, in Gujarat, AAP secured 12.92 per cent of the vote and won five seats, further eroding the Congress’ standing. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress barely edged past BJP by 0.9 per cent to form the government, while AAP’s 1.1 per cent vote share remained insignificant but still underscored its presence.

By 2023, AAP struggled to make a mark in Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana, suggesting that its influence might be plateauing outside its strongholds.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Congress reluctantly aligned with AAP in Delhi, Gujarat, Chandigarh, Haryana, and Goa. However, the alliance failed to yield significant gains for AAP.

In Punjab, both parties contested separately, winning seven and three seats, respectively. Meanwhile, in Haryana, talks for an alliance collapsed ahead of the October 2024 Assembly election. The Congress, trailing BJP by just 0.85 per cent, suffered its third consecutive loss in the state. AAP, despite Haryana being Kejriwal’s home turf, managed only 1.79 per cent of the vote—yet it influenced the outcome of four crucial seats that could have changed the Congress’ tally.

In Jammu and Kashmir, AAP managed to secure a single Assembly seat — Doda — a small but notable political footprint in the region.

As the political landscape shifts ahead of the next round of elections, the Congress is keenly watching AAP’s trajectory. With Kejriwal’s party struggling to maintain its foothold beyond Punjab and Delhi, the battle for opposition leadership at the national level is far from over.