Lok Sabha election 2024: What makes Delhi, a bellwether state, more interesting this time

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, May 25

All eyes are on the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, which can easily be summarised as a bellwether state, if the past elections are anything to go by.

To put it loosely, bellwether is something that leads or indicates a trend and in this case, the voting behaviour of a majority of the country.

Go into the annals of India's electoral history and you will notice something very interesting.

In past General Election, largely the party which did well in these seven seats is also the one that formed the government in the country, whether it was 2019 or 2014 when the BJP won all the seven seats or before that in 2009 or 2004, the years when Congress-led UPA was running the country.

In 2009, the Congress won all the seven seats and in 2004 six seats. Interestingly, in the elections before that when BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed the government at the Centre, the saffron party also won all the seven seats in the national capital.   

 What makes Delhi more interesting this time 

Another factor that may make Delhi an interesting case study in these elections is the coming together of AAP and Congress.  The sixth phase contest in the national capital is also a direct fight between the BJP and INDIA bloc parties Congress and Aam Aadmi Party.

Delhi may prove to be a test of  future alliances against the BJP, whether opposition parties can together hold the fort against the saffron might.

Meanwhile, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal's arrest and interim bail has made the campaign more interesting.

Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is contesting four seats and Congress three seats. The BJP, which won all seven seats of Delhi in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, dropped all but one MP for the 2024 elections. Mayawati-led BSP is the other national party which has fielded candidates in all seven seats of Delhi.

Will the Kejriwal factor work?

The BJP’s campaign in Delhi relied on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his ‘development’ agenda and trashing the credentials of Kejriwal, the man who made to the national-level politics as an anti-corruption crusader but now happens to be an accused in a money laundering case.

Will BJP's strategy  work or will “sympathy” for Kejriwal play a role, that remains to be seen.  

Today’s election is particularly important for AAP and Congress, say observers. The grand old party, which remained in power in Delhi for good 15 years, is seeking a reversal of fortunes.

Delhi’s seven seats

New Delhi, North West Delhi, West Delhi, South Delhi, North East Delhi, East Delhi and Chandni Chowk are the seven seats that are being watched. 

North East Delhi has become the most interesting seat across the Yamuna primarily due to the fight between two “Biharis”, Congress’ Kanhaiya Kumar and sitting BJP MP Manoj Tiwari, who is the only BJP MP to have been repeated by the BJP in 2024.

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#Aam Aadmi Party AAP #BJP #Congress #INDIA bloc #Lok Sabha