PM again reigns as BJP’s undisputed leader; AAP swept onto thorny path

The BJP’s massive win in the Delhi Assembly elections on Saturday stamped the authority of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an undisputed saffron leader even as it laid bare the challenges for Aam Aadmi Party and its chief Arvind Kejriwal, who lost his own seat in New Delhi.

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The effective spinning of anti-Kejriwal poll narratives around the Delhi “excise scam”, Sheesh Mahal and “stalled” development of the national capital; over 600 poll rallies and events by BJP star campaigners led by PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah; community-specific outreach through the CMs of Assam, Haryana, UP and other states; mass mobilisation across segments and micro-management in each Assembly seat powered the saffron surge in Delhi.

AAP, on the other hand, lost on the back of hubris as evidenced in the Sheesh Mahal controversy, its constant state of conflict with the LG and the Centre causing development projects to lag; abandonment by hitherto loyal voters, including slum dwellers, villagers, women (more women voted this time than men), sections of SCs and corruption accusations in the Delhi excise scam.

For the BJP, a decisive mandate in Delhi, the first since 1998 and a third straight win after Haryana and Maharashtra, is bound to power saffron prospects in the Bihar elections, scheduled later this year. A comprehensive win across all segments in the capital—community votes, women, first-time voters, villages and Dalit segments—further powers Modi’s “BJP is the preferred party for governance” line.

Further, the fact that a faceless BJP decimated Arvind Kejriwal in his own seat will give the party a headstart in Punjab, the only other state where AAP rules and where the BJP has no major base currently.

Within the organisation, the Delhi win is a consolidation of the Modi-Shah policies, which means the duo may no longer need to defer as much to their parent outfit RSS as they have had to if they had lost states which they won. The first impact of today’s victory could be felt in the BJP president’s election expected in March.

The loss of Kejriwal, meanwhile, casts a shadow not just on AAP but also on the broader opposition unity with the non-BJP ranks expected to feel demoralised. Kejriwal had emerged as the face of alternative and non-establishment politics when AAP rose to prominence in 2013. He had through the past decade garnered pan-segment support from the poor, urban and middle classes, which appear to have abandoned him for the BJP today.

Going forward, Kejriwal would have to ensure AAP stays united as do his ranks in party-ruled Punjab. For the Congress, today’s results changed nothing except that it improved the vote share marginally, at the expense of AAP and at the advantage of the BJP.

Congress candidates again lost deposits in majority seats with former CM Sheila Dikshit’s son Sandeep finishing third in New Delhi; state unit chief Devender Yadav finishing third in Badli, Mahila Congress chief Alka Lamba finishing third in Kalkaji and former five-term MLA Haroon Yusuf finishing third in Ballimaran.

Overall, the Congress didn’t gain anything but spoiled AAP prospects in Delhi by dividing the anti-BJP vote—a development that today drew the ire of anti-BJP INDIA parties, including the NC. The Congress’ third major loss after Maharashtra and Haryana would also mean question marks on its leadership of the INDIA bloc.