Justin Trudeau on thin ice as majority Liberal MPs want him to step down

The famous Rideau Canal in Canada’s capital city Ottawa on Sunday had a warning - 'Thin ice. Stay Away'. On the same day, most Liberals in the caucus called for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign - a clear signal that he, too, is on ‘thin ice’ and may not have many options but to put in his papers and ‘stay away’.

Political temperatures in Canada have been rising high, despite the bone-chilling winters, especially after Trudeau’s Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned last week citing her policy disagreement with the prime minister. Her resignation renewed calls for Trudeau to step down not only from his opponents but also his once longtime ally, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, a known Khalistan ideologue and believed to be the ‘push’ behind RCMP’s investigations against Indian diplomats in the alleged murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who has been accused of being the leader of the Khalistan Tiger Force.

Jagmeet had been the backbone of Trudeau’s minority government since March 2022, and earlier this week, he, too, demanded the Prime Minister’s resignation and announced that he would vote to bring his government down. While things were looking pretty grim for Trudeau after Jagmeet’s statement that “the liberals don’t deserve another chance”, the final nail in the coffin was struck on Sunday with many Liberal MPs, particularly from Ontario, wanting him to step down. Reports in the local media said that about 50 of the 75 MPs wanted him to go.

Indian-origin MP and once a Trudeau supporter, Chandra Arya, called out for Trudeau’s resignation earlier this week and even indicated that he was ready to back Freeland as the new liberal leader if she throws her hat in the ring. While speculation is rife that Freeland quit to position herself as an alternative to Trudeau, she has not said anything so far on the issue.

Implications of Trudeau’s resignation for India

For the Indian government and many others, Trudeau is the ‘villain’ for the strained relations between the two countries. His resignation could have significant ramifications for its relationship with India.

Tensions between the two countries arose earlier this year with Trudeau openly accusing India of orchestrating Nijjar’s murder through its agents and diplomats. The allegations sparked a massive row and if Indian government officials are to be believed, not a shred of evidence has been given by Canada to support its allegations.

Incidentally, these allegations have not only strained bilateral relations but have also stirred domestic political turbulence, with heightened frictions between the two major Indian communities - the Sikhs and the Hindus.

Many leaders, including some from the ruling party, feel Trudeau’s resignation could lead to a shift in the diplomatic dynamics between Canada and India and reset ties. While it’s premature to say anything with certainty, it is felt that a new leader could reopen channels for dialogue, de-escalating rhetoric, and prioritising economic and strategic ties over ideological differences.

If his Liberal successor tones down and avoids contentious issues, such as allegations against India regarding Sikh separatist activities in Canada and its involvement in Nijjar’s alleged murder, the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, might use it as an opportunity to mend relations.

Conservatives ahead in polls

Trudeau’s resignation could also lead to early election in Canada. Latest polls show a significant shift in public opinion, with the Conservative Party leading by a substantial margin. This trend has been influenced by internal challenges sparked by Freeland’s resignation, further eroding confidence in Trudeau’s leadership.

Observers say a Conservative win could lead to improved relations with India, as party leaders have often spoken on pragmatism and trade over ideological differences. It is felt that conservatives could take a firmer stance against Khalistan-related activism, aligning with India’s sensitivities on the issue. This would address one of India’s major grievances with the Trudeau government.

(The author is based in Toronto and writes for The Tribune)