Mark Carney in, Trudeau out: Khalistan issue looms large as new PM takes helm in Canada
The landslide victory of Mark Carney--a career economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada--as the new Liberal leader and successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is set to mark a significant shift in Canada's political landscape—both domestically and internationally.
While there is no doubt that Carney's immediate focus after taking over will be on domestic issues, primarily managing relations with the US in the wake of US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which threaten to significantly disrupt Canada's economy and job market, and fighting the Conservative Party of Canada as federal elections approach, his leadership could have implications for the country's foreign policy.
However, whether his entry and Justin Trudeau's exit will improve Canada's strained relationship with India remains a big question.
While it is too soon to assess whether Carney could reverse the damage done by Trudeau to Indo-Canadian relations, political observers and some Liberal leaders believe that, although his election does not translate into any immediate policy changes, his leadership style and economic focus could influence Canada's approach to India in multiple ways.
Carney's leadership comes at a time when Canada-India relations are at their lowest ebb, primarily over the Khalistan movement in Canada.
Canada's relations with India hit a low point in 2023 after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of being actively involved in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistan separatist.
This led to a major diplomatic standoff, with both countries expelling diplomats. While Carney has not publicly commented on the Khalistan issue, it remains to be seen whether his approach to governance will be more pragmatic and less politically driven compared to Trudeau's.
His real challenge will be in dealing with the Khalistani sympathisers who exist in the Liberal party and hold considerable sway over it. In the coming days, India will be closely watching to see whether Carney takes a firm stance against anti-India activities on Canadian soil.
A more cooperative approach on security issues could surely improve relations between the two countries, but this will depend on how Carney manages domestic political pressures, particularly from the Sikh and Indian diaspora. Observers say that trade is one area where Carney's leadership could impact India.
Since Carney is not a seasoned politician but a reputed professional economist, he could opt to set aside contentious issues with India and resume talks on trade, which have been stalled since 2023 due to diplomatic tensions.
Carney, with his strong economic background, could prioritize trade and investment, given India's growing role in the global economic scenario. Incidentally, Carney has already vowed to "rebuild Indo-Canadian trade ties" if elected PM.
Another area that concerns India is Canada's recent changes to its immigration and education policies. India is the largest source of international students to Canada, but recent restrictions on student permits and other changes to the rules governing the issuance of work permits have put the future of thousands of Indian students at stake. Carney's stance on these issues also remains unclear.
It remains to be seen whether his focus on economic growth could support policies that attract high-skilled Indian professionals and students, which could benefit both nations. Observers say that Trudeau's exit does offer an opportunity for a reset in India-Canada relations.
With a strong economic background and global credibility, Carney has the potential to engineer a more constructive partnership with India. However, much will depend on how he handles India's major concern about the Khalistan movement in Canada. His success in rebuilding trust with India will also depend on how he handles trade negotiations and immigration policies. One will have to wait and see.
