UK braces for war on home soil as Russia, Iran escalate; China hangs in the balance

In a sweeping redefinition of Britain’s security priorities, the UK government has placed Russia and Iran at the heart of its national security concerns, warning of a future that may demand direct confrontation.

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The newly published National Security Strategy 2025 paints a sobering picture: Russia’s aggression and Iran’s hostile activities on British soil are no longer abstract threats but urgent, active dangers. “Russian aggression menaces our continent,” the strategy bluntly declares, while also highlighting that “Iranian hostile activity on British soil is also increasing, as part of the Iranian regime’s efforts to silence its critics abroad as well as directly threatening the UK”. The UK now openly accepts that it must prepare for the possibility of its homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario.

This hardening of Britain’s security posture signals a significant move. The document warns that “for the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat, potentially in a wartime scenario”. Russia’s continued war on Ukraine, its cyberattacks on British infrastructure, and the growing spectre of nuclear posturing have apparently forced London to reassess its risk landscape.

Iran, meanwhile, is called out not only for its clandestine operations in the UK but also for its role in destabilising regions where British interests are directly at stake. The strategy singles out Tehran’s support for Russia in Ukraine, the provision of drones and missiles, and its increasingly provocative activity in the Middle East. Britain’s latest measures include placing Iran on the enhanced tier of its Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, which compels any individual working on behalf of the Iranian state in the UK to declare their activities or face prosecution.

The response to these rising threats is not merely defensive. The UK is shifting to what the document terms a “campaigning approach” – actively seeking to minimise the ability of adversaries to coerce or undermine Britain’s security foundations, while maximising opportunities to strengthen national strength. Britain’s commitment to NATO is described as central, but there is an added determination to develop sovereign capabilities that reduce reliance on traditional allies.

The document makes clear that the UK’s view of its own security now extends well beyond its borders. London is pushing to integrate its military, economic and technological capacities into a coherent strategy aimed at achieving long-term advantage over adversaries. The commitment to spend 5% of GDP on national security by 2035 underlines this strategic ambition.

Interestingly, the strategy positions China in a markedly different light. While the challenge posed by Beijing is acknowledged, the tone is far less confrontational. China is described as “a global power undergoing rapid economic, military and technological modernisation on a scale that is unprecedented in world history”. Yet, rather than warning of direct conflict, the UK adopts a nuanced stance that balances pragmatic cooperation with firm pushback on issues like espionage and economic security.

The strategy stresses that “diplomacy is an essential part of our ability to achieve strength abroad” and that the UK will seek “direct and high-level engagement and pragmatic cooperation where it is in our national interest”. Britain wants to reduce the risks of miscalculation with China while simultaneously bolstering its resilience against espionage, interference, and supply chain vulnerabilities linked to Beijing.

This contrast is striking. Russia and Iran are treated as imminent threats requiring heightened vigilance, military readiness, and direct counter-measures. China, on the other hand, is cast as a competitor – certainly one whose activities must be closely scrutinised – but also as a country with which the UK intends to maintain engagement, especially on trade, climate, and global governance.

The review even proposes creating a new online guidance hub to help British businesses, universities, and the public navigate relations with China, signalling an intention to manage rather than sever economic ties.

For Britain, the message is clear: the era of reactive defence strategies is over. The new mantra is one of proactive preparation, economic and technological fortification, and, where necessary, confrontation. The National Security Strategy 2025 is unambiguous in its assessment that “greater vigilance in all domains will be essential to continue to deter those who seek to undermine our territorial security”.

(The writer is a career journalist and currently serves as Communications and Advocacy Director at UNITED SIKHS (UK), a charity registered in England and Wales)