For an organisation that concealed the death of its previous chief for two years, the Taliban are living up to their reputation of being intensely secretive. There has been as yet no public discussion on the national song, leave alone weightier issues like the Constitution and the national flag. Their confabulations last week in Kandahar left no one the wiser about the broad structure of the government — an emirate or an Islamic republic. The inclusion in the government of non-Pashtuns and those ideologically opposed through consultations should be the sine qua non for an inclusive and hence stable Afghanistan.
But the prospects of a broad-based government are not too bright. The Taliban chose the military option with the Panjshiris after a mere three hours of negotiations. Their discussions with Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah have also withered. The visit of the ISI chief along with unnamed Pakistani officials to Kabul suggests that the Taliban may even be battling divisions in their ranks over power-sharing. Or that Rawalpindi has been sufficiently pressured by global powers to make a direct intercession for an inclusive government. For, times have changed since the days of the previous Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001.
Pakistan will be doing the Afghans a great disservice if they replicate another ‘Col Imam’, like the last time, to act as the virtual vice regent. Afghanistan needs all the help it can from overseas. The US, Europe and India will have to be convinced that the country does not have pockets of deep discontent. China may recall that Rashid Dostum’s dissonance with Kabul forced it to shutter the oil wells. The Tajik President, whose kin are the second largest group in Afghanistan, has openly expressed his disquiet at the Taliban’s victory. Afghanistan’s hopes of economic sustainability rest on earnings from transit fees of gas pipelines and fair use of natural resources. To gain the global community’s confidence, the men controlling Kabul must demonstrate their accommodation of women in governance and public life. Mere nomination of ethnic minorities from its Rehbar Shura as ministers will not convince the global community.
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