Third wave scare

While 70% of India’s districts reporting less than 5% positivity rate may be an encouraging sign in the fight against the coronavirus, lack of clarity on what levels of herd immunity in a population would be sufficient to ward off Covid-19 remains a matter of concern. Population immunity for diseases like polio and measles has a clear threshold, but it is not so in the case of the coronavirus, with more research required in this direction. The government has accordingly asked people not to lower the guard, with even the Delhi High Court issuing notices over violations of Covid protocols. The reliability of sero-prevalence surveys is also open to interpretation because of variations on the grounds of vaccines and the percentage of population inoculated.

The Centre had advised the states after the second wave that unlocking should take place only if the positivity rate remained below 5% for more than two weeks in a district to ensure the disease was under control. It also suggested that 70% of the vulnerable population groups with comorbidities must receive the vaccine, a process that has been stuck because of shortages and other bottlenecks. Community ownership of Covid-appropriate behaviour was also suggested to prevent a third wave, with thrust on vaccinating those 18 years or above. Vaccinating India’s entire population is a huge task and will take time, making the process more arduous.

The Centre has now suggested that the lifting of the lockdown should be calibrated with the five-fold strategy of Covid-appropriate behaviour — test-track-treat, avoiding crowding, and vaccination — to break the chain of transmission. A system at the micro level to ensure that whenever there is a rise in cases in a smaller place, it gets checked there itself through local containment measures is also among the guidelines. The first and the second waves saw huge destruction in terms of loss of life and livelihood and it is only to be hoped that the cumulative experience helps in averting another catastrophe.

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