Trump card

US President Donald Trump stumped the world on Saturday when he announced on social media that India and Pakistan had agreed to a “full and immediate ceasefire”. Just when it seemed that the two warring nations were in for the long haul, Trump pulled a rabbit out of his hat — and duly patted himself on the back for having defused cross-border tensions, and that too practically overnight. The ceasefire will no doubt be tested on a daily basis, but the US has driven its point home: It has big stakes in the region and can’t afford to let two nuclear-armed neighbours spark a wider conflict.

The development was all the more surprising as Trump had seemed standoffish when the two nations locked horns after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack. Barely two days before the President’s ceasefire declaration, his deputy JD Vance stated that the US would not get involved in the India-Pak conflict as it was “fundamentally none of America’s business”. However, it was perhaps the Saudis’ proactive outreach to the two nations or the nuclear bogey that spurred Trump’s team to make a frantic intervention.

The US used its disproportionate voting power to help Pakistan secure a tranche of about $1 billion from the International Monetary Fund — despite India’s objections that such loans were being used to finance cross-border terror activities. This timely lifeline, which must have come with riders, implies that Pakistan will be under pressure to mend its ways. Any future misadventure will not only trigger a fierce retaliation from India but also acutely shrink the space for US-endorsed assistance. Trump doesn’t want Pakistan to imperil strong India-US ties, but he is also keen to loosen Islamabad’s tight embrace of Beijing. It’s a tightrope walk whose efficacy will be put to the test.