Explainer: What are India’s options on Indus Waters Treaty

India’s announcement on ‘holding in abeyance’ the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which defines sharing of river waters with Pakistan, will have an impact decades later. Any immediate impact on the flow of waters to Pakistan would be miniscule, even negligible.

However, the decision gives India an option to have a long-term plan on using the mandated share of waters of Pakistan to put pressure. Stopping the entire flow of 117 billion cubic metres annually of the three rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — is a geological impossibility.

What is the treaty

The IWT, negotiated through the World Bank and inked in 1960, allocates the waters of Sutlej, Beas and Ravi for 100 per cent use of India. Across these rivers are large storage dams like the Bhakra (on Sutlej), Pong (on Beas) and Ranjit Sagar (on Ravi) in India. India is using almost 96 per cent of the water. The Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are for full use of Pakistan. On these, India can only use ‘run of the river’ to generate power and not store water beyond a certain limit that is mandated in the IWT. India can use water for drinking purposes and irrigation in J&K and Ladakh.

The present status

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on Wednesday announced that the IWT “will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”.

India is not ‘withdrawing’ from the treaty, nor is the treaty being abrogated — meaning, India need not adhere to the terms of the treaty. An immediate step can be to stop sharing river water data with Pakistan and stall the proviso of Pakistani teams inspecting the water utilisation infrastructure on the Indian side in J&K and Ladakh.

Close to 80% of Pakistan’s irrigation needs for agriculture are currently met through the three western rivers and in economic terms, these waters contribute 21% to Pakistan’s GDP.

Storage capacity

At present, India has little capacity to store waters of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. In the long term, India can build large storage dams across these rivers, especially across the Indus and the Chenab and release waters at will: that is release more water during monsoons and hold it back in summer months.

Jhelum offers lesser scope for large dams. The Indus originates in Tibet and enters Ladakh at Demchok and exits near the hamlet of Biamah. Within Ladakh, there are enough gorges to build dams to generate power. However, diverting waters of the Indus southwards to Punjab and Himachal would be near impossible due to geological challenges. The Chenab offers equal potential on hydro-power diversion of waters.

But it will take years for the work to finish and it needs massive investment. Diversion of water would have to be done via canals or tunnels bored through the Himalayas that would channelise some water, if not all, for use in India.

Using the lower hills

In J&K, from Kathua to Akhnoor – a distance of some 115 km – the area is sub-mountainous. Several small rivers flow westwards towards Pakistan. Some join the Tawi river and others the Ravi. India could easily build dams across these rivers to hold back some water.

The disputes

In 2016, Pakistan approached the World Bank raising concerns over India’s Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric power projects being constructed in J&K. India then requested for neutral experts to inspect the plants, saying the points raised by Pakistan were technical in nature, and did not require a court of arbitration. The World Bank permitted India to proceed with the projects.

The Tulbul project (a navigation lock-cum-control structure at the mouth of the Wular lake) was suspended in 1987 after Pakistan objected to it. Recently, the government decided to review this suspension. Pakistan’s Left Bank Outfall Drain project passes through the Rann of Kutch and was constructed without India’s consent. India has objected.

Indian stand

India does not use its entire share of water it is entitled to as per the provisions of the IWT. About 2 million acre feet from the Ravi flows into Pakistan. In the wake of the Pulwama attacks in 2019, the Indian government stated that all water flowing into Pakistan, in the three eastern rivers, will be diverted to Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan. To utilise the entire share of water, India has taken the following steps:

Shahpurkandi project: Will help in generating power for Punjab and J&K.

Ujh project: Will create storage of water on the Ujh, a tributary of the Ravi, for irrigation as well as power generation.

2nd Ravi Beas link below Ujh: This has been declared a national project. It involves constructing a barrage across the Ravi for diverting water through a tunnel link to the Beas basin. This is planned to prevent excess water flowing into Pakistan.

(With inputs by

Sanjeev Singh Bariana)