Explainer: Factors that led to flooding, and what next

PUNJAB has witnessed one of its worst-ever floods in recent history, resulting in 57 deaths across the state, extensive loss of livestock and huge damage to property and infrastructure. As the clean-up and rehabilitation efforts gain pace, going forward, the risk mitigation strategies rest on the fundamental questions — what exactly led to the flooding? Was it merely the result of a natural occurrence, or a manmade disaster? A combination of both seems a plausible explanation, though the political blame game over the alleged mismanagement and lack of preparation by the ruling AAP government continues.

Record rainfall

Incessant rainfall in the upstream catchment areas of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej in August and September resulted in a rarely seen discharge in the rivers. This led to waters overflowing, inundating not just the river banks but also the floodplains.

The discharge of water in the Ravi — which has caused the maximum damage in Punjab this year — on the night of August 26 was recorded at 14.11 lakh cusecs. Comparatively, during the 1988 floods — which was the last big natural disaster to have struck the state — the water discharge was 11.2 lakh cusecs.

With water crossing the danger mark in Pong dam and almost touching the mark in Bhakra dam, it necessitated controlled release, further aggravating the problem.

Did rivers change course?

Punjab Water Resources Minister Barinder Goyal claimed that while the Punjab government had taken all safeguards for flood protection, including desilting of rivers and other water courses — a claim disputed by the Opposition and experts — the maximum damage was caused because the rivers changed course.

“I have been visiting all flood-hit areas, and can say with authority that both the Ravi and Sutlej changed course, usurping large tracts of land,” he said.

Pargat Singh, the Congress MLA from Jalandhar Cantt, countered the claim. “They never channelised the river. The embankments were not strengthened. Mining along the rivers also played a role in causing massive flooding. I repeatedly protested against mining of sand and gravel along the Bein here. The level of the Bein is higher and mining along its sides led to a fall in level of the banks,” he said.

Crisis of own making

Though climate change exacerbated by manmade factors has led to uneven and unpredictable monsoon patterns, various studies point towards the poor management and lack of desilting and cleanliness of drains, canals, reservoirs of dams, thus reducing their water carrying and storing capacity.

Deforestation along floodplains, construction in the floodplains and even on the river beds, poorly maintained dhussi bundhs — all added to the destruction, stress experts.

Managing the dams

There have also been allegations of dam mismanagement, with some experts criticising the practice of holding water to the maximum capacity through the filling period and releasing it suddenly when the rivers are already in spate.

Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) and Ranjit Sagar Dam experts, unable to judge the coming monsoon, did not release water into the spillways because it would go into Pakistan, a former Chief Engineer of the Ranjit Sagar Dam said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The Punjab government, in a recent meeting of BBMB, demanded reducing the maximum water level limit in the Bhakra reservoir from 1,680 feet to 1,670 feet to provide added cushion in case of an emergency.

The essential clean-up

“The way the waters came gushing down is proof that rivers never forget their course. The drainage infrastructure needs to be in place in river beds, with regular silt removal. The floodplains need to be clear of all encroachments. Considering the regularity of floods — 2019, 2023 and now 2025, the risk mitigation strategy has to be largely developed around these principles,” says former BBMB secretary Satish Singla.

Kahan Singh Pannu, a former bureaucrat who steered the Water Resources Department, says the rivers’ capacity to carry flood waters has been reduced because of silt deposition. “An effective method of flood management the world over depends on keeping river beds silt-free. The desilting of dams and headworks, although a little more difficult, should be a continuous exercise,” he adds.

Embankment strategy

If there is unanimity among experts on desilting, they also agree on the need to strengthen river embankments. “Since substantial financial resources are required, there is a strong case for allowing a portion of the State Disaster Response Fund to be used for this purpose,” says Pannu.