AAP's third front begins uphill climb in Himachal

Pratibha Chauhan

A third front has had little success in the past in Himachal Pradesh’s bipolar political arrangement, but the Aam Aadmi Party’s spectacular performance in neighbouring Punjab has created a buzz in the hill state ahead of the Assembly elections, due in November-December this year. The poor showing in its earlier electoral foray in 2014 notwithstanding, AAP’s national convener Arvind Kejriwal seems to be wasting no time in carrying forward the momentum. Punjab’s new Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann will accompany him in a roadshow planned in Mandi on April 6, even as AAP claims a surge in ranks, with 40,000 joining the party in the past 10 days. A new team has already been announced for the state.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, AAP had fielded candidates from all the four parliamentary seats. However, barring former BJP minister from Kangra Rajan Sushant, the security deposits of all others, including Kargil hero Capt Vikram Batra’s mother Kamal Kant Batra, who had contested from Hamirpur, were forfeited. AAP did not field its candidates in the 2017 Assembly elections.

The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party have been taking turns at forming the government in the state, and after 1985, none of the two parties has been able to manage a second term. Speculation is rife in political circles about AAP being in touch with some BJP and Congress leaders, but both the parties are dismissive about the third entrant’s overall prospects, while admitting some pockets of influence in districts like Kangra, Bilaspur and Solan, which share a border with Punjab.

AAP’s co-in charge for the state Ratnesh Gupta claims the party’s fight is “only with the ruling BJP, as the Congress is no match and virtually stands wiped out”. The people of Himachal, he contends, are disenchanted with the BJP. “If a water and power-surplus state cannot provide free or cheap water and electricity to its people, then why should they vote for a particular party?”

A video of Union Information and Broadcasting Minister Anurag Thakur has gone viral in which he mocks at AAP’s prospects: “It has no base in Himachal. They made tall claims in Uttar Pradesh and Goa, but fared badly.” State Congress chief Kuldeep Rathore says the situation in Himachal is very different from Delhi and Punjab and “AAP will not have much impact. The fight will be between the BJP and the Congress”.

Challenges before AAP

“The AAP emerging as an alternative in Himachal appears to be a distant dream although its presence could make a difference in districts bordering Punjab,” says Prof Ramesh Chauhan from the Department of Political Science, Himachal Pradesh University. He, however, feels that AAP would make a dent in the Congress vote-bank, thus benefiting the BJP indirectly, “though it would primarily be a two-party contest”.

AAP’s pro-people and anti-privilege rhetoric may have caught the fancy of voters in Punjab, but the situation in Himachal offers various hurdles, like the absence of prominent faces and party organisation especially in the rural and far-flung areas.

Lack of confidence though is not AAP’s weak point. “All 68 MLAs from BJP and Congress cannot be bad. As such, our doors are open for anyone who is dedicated to public service and enjoys a clean image,” says Gupta, adding that the party has 7,700 booth-level workers in all 68 Assembly segments.

Caste equations

Caste continues to have a firm hold in Himachal politics, and caste composition of a constituency invariably determines the choice of candidates.

Rajputs, the dominant caste, have virtually held the reins of the state since its inception. Out of the six Chief Ministers the state has had, all barring Shanta Kumar, who is a Brahmin, have been Rajputs — Dr Yashwant Singh Parmar, Thakur Ram Lal, Virbhadra Singh, Prem Kumar Dhumal and now Jai Ram Thakur, who had taken oath on December 27, 2017.

Rajputs, according to estimates, constitute about 35 per cent of the population, followed by 25 per cent Dalits. Brahmins number about 18 per cent. The OBCs also form a sizeable chunk of the electorate at about 14 per cent.

A total of 17 out of 68 Assembly segments are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs), while three — Kinnaur, Lahaul-Spiti and Bharmour — are reserved for Scheduled Tribes.

Both the BJP and the Congress have SC cells and as part of its social engineering model, the BJP appointed Suresh Kashyap, its MP from the Shimla reserved seat, as its state president. There have been stray cases of Dalits not being allowed to draw water from wells or their children being served mid-day meals separately, but instances of victimisation are few and far between in Himachal. That could possibly explain why the state has not seen any significant Dalit movement or mobilisation like elsewhere.

Regional balance

Having been granted the status of a full-fledged state in 1971, Himachal, despite 50 years of existence, remains deeply divided along regional lines. The chasm between Old Himachal and New Himachal (areas which were merged from Punjab in 1966) remains wide. Both the parties make it a point to strike a regional balance while deciding its Chief Minister and party president. Traditionally, the apple-growing belt of Shimla-Solan-Sirmaur is considered to be a Congress bastion, while Kangra is known to be a BJP fortress.

New options in state

The first serious attempt to forge a third front was in 1967, when bureaucrat-turned-politician Thakur Sen Negi floated the Lok Raj Party, which won two Assembly seats in the 1972 polls. Later, in 1990, the Janata Dal won 11 seats in the Assembly polls with Vijai Singh Mankotia being at the forefront. Another serious attempt to float a regional party was made in 1996 when Sukh Ram floated the Himachal Vikas Congress. The HVC managed to win five seats in a pre-poll alliance with the BJP.

In 2012, a breakaway faction of the BJP led by Maheshwar Singh, former state president and MP, floated the Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP), which managed to win one seat in the 2012 Assembly polls but merged with the BJP in 2017.

AAP’s determined bid this time round adds a new dimension to the electoral arena.

Past performance in assembly polls

1972 Former Speaker Thakur Sen Negi floated the Lok Raj Party, which won two seats in the 1972 polls

1990 Rebel Congress leader Vijai Singh Mankotia joined the Janata Dal, which won 11 seats

1998 Expelled Congress leader Sukh Ram floated Himachal Vikas Congress, which won five seats

2007 BSP led by Vijai Singh Mankotia made big entry into HP, but failed to win even a single seat

2012 Breakaway BJP faction led by Maheshwar Singh floated Himachal Lokhit Party, and won one seat

Reservation in Assembly seats

Scheduled Castes: 17 of 68 seats; Scheduled Tribes: 3 seats

SC population: 17.29 lakh, of total of 68.64 lakh (25.19%)

ST population: 3.92 lakh (5.71%)