Act fast to address farm sector’s vulnerabilities

Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary and Prem Chand

IN recent decades, the global climate change debate has shifted from scientific to policy circles, with nations now more focused on exploring response strategies to address this complex challenge endangering anthropocentric and economic activities. The surge in the frequency of extreme weather events is often overlooked as these events tend to be localised and frequently go unreported. However, the cumulative impact of these events is quite alarming and needs serious policy attention. Reportedly, from 1999 to 2018, climate change-induced extreme weather events caused 4,95,000 human deaths globally. More than 12,000 such events resulted in losses amounting to $3.54 trillion (measured in terms of purchasing power parity or PPP) during the same period.

Studies have shown that India has witnessed an exponential rise in the occurrence of extreme events from 1970 to 2022, with a notable acceleration after 2000. This trend encompasses a rare phenomenon of consecutive droughts in 2014 and 2015. During this period, several instances of heavy rainfall leading to flash floods have been recorded, notably in Mumbai (2005), Uttarakhand (2013), Kashmir (2014) and Kerala (2018). According to the National Disaster Management Authority, about 12% of India’s total land area is prone to floods, while 68% is susceptible to drought. A significant 80% of the country’s coastline is exposed to cyclones and tsunamis. These statistics highlight the vulnerability of various regions to specific natural hazards. India is witnessing a shift towards the new normal — events such as heatwaves, cold waves, extreme rainfall, landslides and avalanches are becoming more frequent and pronounced.

India ranks among the top 10 countries most affected by climate change on the Global Climate Risk Index of 2021. As per studies, more than 75% of India’s districts are hotspots of extreme climate events. The State of India’s Environment Report 2023 claims that the country experienced 271 days with extreme weather events between January and October 2022. Last year, India recorded an average annual mean land surface air temperature 0.51°C higher than the long-term average (1981-2010) and the year was the fifth warmest on record.

India has a predominantly agrarian economy. Since agricultural production is heavily conditioned by climatic factors, it is more vulnerable to climatic uncertainties than other economic activities. In 2022, the extreme weather events affected crop area of 1.96 million hectares (ha) and killed around 70,000 animals. Of the almost 2 million ha affected crop area, the south peninsula region accounted for the largest share (1.2 million ha). The eastern and northeastern regions accounted for about 80% of the animals killed due to extreme weather events in 2022.

As per data of the India Meteorological Department, the number of dry spells — a continuous period of two weeks or more during the monsoon months (June to September) with daily precipitation less than 2.5 mm — have also increased in most parts of the country and more so in rainfed region in the past few decades. The prolonged dry spells cause reduced crop yield and crop failure and threaten the livelihoods of farmers, leading to food insecurity and potential rural-to-urban migration. Bundelkhand, Marathwada, Vidarbha, Ladakh and western Rajasthan are often quoted as examples of dry spell-induced migration.

As the frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to rise, it is crucial to emphasise the need for precise course correction and effective policy implementation. The primary objective should be to curtail and mitigate the compounded impact.

Creating a detailed and integrated climate risk atlas can provide valuable information on the vulnerability of different regions to specific climate hazards. This can aid in effective planning, decision-making and resource allocation. Innovative risk financing instruments need to be explored and implemented to bridge the financial gaps in disaster response, recovery and resilience-building efforts. This can involve mechanisms such as insurance schemes, public-private partnerships and international cooperation. Improving irrigation infrastructure and governance is crucial for minimising the impact of such extreme events.

A recent study by the National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research proved that though both crop insurance and irrigation effectively improve farm income and reduce farmers’ exposure to downside risks, irrigation works better when these two are compared. It is imperative to incorporate climate risk assessments into all levels of decision-making and across various sectors. This integration will ensure that climate risks are taken into account while formulating policies, implementing infrastructure projects and managing natural resources.

Promoting green cover on farmland through agroforestry is a promising strategy. The vegetation fosters ecological resilience, alleviates temperature fluctuations and conserves water resources. Tree-based farming is a scientifically supported nature-based strategy to reduce the impact of extreme climate events on agriculture.

Choudhary is a scientist at

ICAR-Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Jhansi; Chand is a senior scientist at ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi. Views are personal