Elections 2024: First phase test for BJP, Opposition

Aditi Tandon

On April 19, the world’s largest electoral exercise will kick off in India as 96.8 crore people begin voting through seven phases until June 1 to elect a new Parliament. Over 10 per cent of the global population will participate in what Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar describes as the biggest festival of democracy.

82 lakh Voters above 85 years can vote in 2024

2.18 lakh centenarians registered as voters

19.74 cr Voters in the age group of 20-29 years

1.8 cr first-time voters can cast vote in 2024

The staggering scale of the Indian General Election 2024 shines in one statistic — 69 per cent people in the world’s most populous country have enrolled themselves to vote in this election as against 49 per cent in the first Lok Sabha poll of 1952, when a fledgling nation was just beginning to experiment with the democratic electoral process.

17.32 cr Number of voters in first Lok Sabha poll in 1952

96.8 cr Voters in 18th Lok Sabha poll in 2024

49% of population enrolled as voters in 1952

69% of population enrolled as voters in 2024

As is the case today, global interest in Indian elections was at its prime even in 1952.

The Election Commission of India records reveal that Chester Bowles, the US ambassador to India (1951-53) who arrived here on the eve of the 1952 General Election, was convinced that the best solution for Asian countries would be a benevolent dictatorship like that of Kemal Ataturk in Turkey.

“However, after seeing the world’s largest elections in India from close quarters, Bowles felt it was time to revise the pessimistic, somewhat arrogant, assumption that democracy is practical only for highly developed, educated people,” an ECI compendium on India’s electoral journey notes.

The fact that the size of the national electorate has grown a phenomenal 5.62 times — from 17.32 crore in the first Lok Sabha poll to 96.8 crore in the 18th — is a sign of the Indian voters’ abiding faith in democracy.

With the marathon poll season rolling out, all eyes are on the crucial first phase on April 19, as the BJP strongman and two-term Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance faces off with the Congress-led INDIA bloc that will fight to halt a saffron surge.

For the BJP, seeking a third term, this poll is all about Modi, his schemes covering 60-crore beneficiaries, his promise of making India the third largest global economy, and his stress on cultural revival through the Ram Mandir consecration.

For the Congress, the party that ruled India for 54 of the 76 years since Independence, this election is a test of survival. In 2014 and 2019, the Congress was restricted to 44 and 52 seats in the ‘House of the People’, which did not have a Leader of Opposition for two straight terms (to get the Leader of Opposition position, a party must have 10 per cent strength of the Lok Sabha. The current Lok Sabha has 543 MPs, and 10 per cent is 54).

banking on pre-poll alliances

The highest number of constituencies — 102 — across 21 states/UTs will see voting in phase one on April 19. This is 19 per cent of the entire Lok Sabha strength of 543.

Key battleground states across the North, South, West, East and the Northeast will vote during this phase and witness a significantly distinct election, its defining feature being the dominance of allies in the electoral strategies of both the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress. Both parties, in a bid to outdo one another, have stitched sizeable pre-poll alliances with state partners.

For the first time in its history, the Congress, India’s principal Opposition party, will majorly contest in pre-poll pacts with members of the anti-BJP INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) grouping.

Of the 102 seats in the first phase, Congress nominees will fight 56 and allies 46 — a move the party explains with the adage: “We must stoop to conquer.”

The Congress is reconciled to contesting somewhere near 350 constituencies in the 2024 General Election — a massive drop from 423 it contested in 2019, the same year when the BJP not only contested more seats (437) than the Congress for the first time, but also the highest ever seats since its inception in 1980.

“We need to stop the BJP and that’s the goal,” a Congress leader explains.

On allies, even the BJP, driven by the goal of crossing 370 seats on its own and 400 with the NDA, is contesting in alliance with newfound partners — RLD in Uttar Pradesh; JD(U) in Bihar; Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP in Maharashtra; PMK in Tamil Nadu and regional partners across the Northeast.

The PM would have to lead the BJP to a better show than 2019 in phase one if he has to achieve the party’s major goals — 50 per cent vote share in the 2024 polls (never attained by any party in the past) and 400-plus seats (the Congress won the highest-ever seats, 404, in 1984).

stakes in south

While the first phase is a proverbial ‘make or break’ for the Opposition alliance, it is equally important for PM Modi’s poll target of 400-plus seats for the ruling NDA.

Out of 102 seats going to polls in the first phase, non-BJP parties hold 60 in the outgoing Lok Sabha, and the BJP 42.

The second highest seat holder in this phase is Tamil Nadu’s ruling DMK, with 23 segments in the 17th Lok Sabha. The Congress has 15 seats; BSP, SP and others in the Northeast have the rest.

All 39 seats of Tamil Nadu will vote on April 19. While the INDIA bloc (Congress, DMK and allies) faces the challenge of offsetting anti-incumbency to repeat their spectacular 2019 showing in Tamil Nadu, the BJP will seek a dignified entry into the state’s electoral space.

In 2019, the DMK-led alliance had swept Tamil Nadu winning 38 of 39 seats (DMK won 23 and the Congress 8). The AIADMK won one and the BJP drew a blank.

Tamil Nadu will test the PM’s poll acumen, with saffron forces eyeing a double-digit vote share and some seats.

The INDIA alliance, on the other hand, claims a comfortable edge.

For the BJP, the PM has led a spate of rallies in the state, building poll narratives around the Congress and DMK’s act of gifting Katchatheevu island to Sri Lanka; DMK’s anti-Sanatan remarks; Ram Mandir outreach ahead of the consecration in Ayodhya; emotional appeals around the Chola dynasty Sengol and repeated invocation of the historic links between the North and the South through Kashi and Tamil Nadu.

The DMK and the Congress have countered Modi’s aggressive pitch with promises of a caste census every five years, allegations of misuse of Central agencies against the Union government, claims of discrimination in fund flow to non-BJP-ruled states and accusations of bias against the state Governor.

The DMK manifesto has gone far enough to assure appointment of Governors with Chief Ministers’ consent and repealing Article 356, which permits dissolution of state assemblies. Revocation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, National Education Policy, Uniform Civil Code, one nation-one election plan, the Agnipath scheme and restoration of statehood for J&K are the other Opposition planks for the voters.

To the Congress’ comfort, seat sharing with INDIA ally DMK was largely amicable, unlike with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. The allies agreed to the following division of seats — 21 DMK, 9 Congress and the rest allies.

In the NDA, the BJP is contesting 23 seats, PMK 10 and allies the rest. The AIADMK (which did not ally with BJP) will fight 32 seats in alliance with DMDK (5 seats) and other smaller parties.

Tamil Nadu will be keenly watched for BJP’s performance. The party needs to do better in the South to push up LS numbers. Out of 129 seats in five southern states, BJP has 29 (25 out of Karnataka’s 28 seats and four out of Telangana’s 17). It has no MP in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

bjp mainstay

Like the INDIA alliance hitting saturation limits in Tamil Nadu in 2019, the BJP swept the Hindi belt, bagging more than 50 per cent votes in 11 states and UTs, mostly across the north.

Many of these seats will go to polls in the first phase — Bihar (4), MP (6), Rajasthan (12), UP (8) and Uttarakhand (5). Of these 35 seats, the BJP and allies hold 30. The only first-phase Hindi belt seats the non-BJP parties hold are MP’s Chhindwara and west UP’s Saharanpur, Bijnor, Nagina (BSP) and Moradabad (SP).

The Congress would need a strategic campaign to gain from BJP’s 2019 saturation across the Hindi heartland.

The BJP, conscious of the challenge, has dropped many sitting MPs in these states to beat anti-incumbency trends.

Among 429 candidates declared so far, the BJP has dropped 109 of its 303 sitting MPs in the 17th Lok Sabha. In Rajasthan alone, it has benched 11 of the 25 sitting MPs and in west UP, it has denied a renomination to Varun Gandhi, the late PM Indira Gandhi’s grandson, from Pilibhit.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP has replaced two of its five sitting MPs, including a former CM.

West UP remains a deep focus area for the BJP as the majority of 14 seats it lost in the state in 2019 fall here. The BJP has spoilt Opposition equations in the region, having brought RLD to its side and conferring the Bharat Ratna on the late PM Choudhary Charan Singh, the grandfather of RLD chief Jayant. In 2019, the SP, BSP and RLD contested as a bloc. BSP has gone alone this time, with both the BJP and the Congress hoping for Mayawati to play a spoiler for the other.

Northeast segments

Of the 25 Lok Sabha seats across eight northeastern states, 15 will see voting in the first phase, with the BJP holding seven in the outgoing Lok Sabha and the Congress and regional parties the rest. Here, too, INDIA allies are harbouring high hopes of defeating the BJP.

North Bengal

Cooch Behar, Alipurduar and Jalpaiguri will vote in phase one. All are located in the northern belt, which gave the BJP seven of its 18 seats in West Bengal in 2019, close behind the ruling TMC’s overall tally of 22.

The BJP has renominated sitting MPs from Cooch Behar (Nishith Pramanik) and Jalpaiguri (Jayant Roy), replacing Alipurduar MP and Union Minister John Barla with Assembly chief whip Manoj Tigga.

The saffron forces hope to retain all three seats, having gone an extra mile to woo the dominant Rajbanshis, who are nearly 39-lakh-strong across north Bengal. The BJP recently nominated erstwhile Rajbanshi royal Anant Rai to the Rajya Sabha, with TMC countering the move by sending tea garden worker Prakash Baraik to the House of Elders.

While the TMC is labouring to halt the BJP in its tracks, saffron forces are aggressively pitched against the ruling party, weaving a new campaign narrative around women’s alleged victimisation by TMC strongman Sheikh Shahjahan in Sandeshkhali.

But, observers say, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee is not one to be overwhelmed easily. “She did not think twice before parting with the INDIA bloc and going it alone,” points out an analyst.

The Congress and the Left, fighting together, are seen as marginal players in West Bengal, where they respectively won two and zero seats in 2019.

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