Forecast accuracy saving lives: IMD chief

Fresh after the satisfactory handling of the crisis posed by Cyclone Biparjoy, with limited loss of life as a result of timely precautions following the early forecast, the Director-General of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, talks to Karam Prakash on a wide range of issues, such as climatological events impacting India and the IMD’s critical role. Excerpts from an interview:

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Do you think the Indian Meteorological Department has been successful in mitigating the losses caused by weather events? Has the accuracy in forecasting improved over the past few years?

Indeed, the IMD has been successful in saving lives. Whereas earlier cyclones killed thousands, in the past decade, the loss of human life did not surpass 100 during a single cyclone. A drastic decline in the number of deaths owing to weather events, especially cyclones, has been recorded.

As for the accuracy in forecasting, the early warning system, which is the first step in disaster management, has witnessed a paradigm shift over the past decade due to technological intervention and advances.

We have been successful in developing dense networks to predict cyclones better and have already improved the weather modelling system in coordination with international weather agencies. Earlier, we could predict a cyclone landfall perhaps only a day in advance, but now we are telling the exact time, date and wind speed much, much ahead. We had predicted Biparjoy’s landfall specifics days in advance. And that reduced the loss of lives and destruction to a great deal. Our cyclone forecast is better than many developed countries such as USA, Japan, Australia and the UK. We can not only make predictions about cyclones, but can forecast their impact as well.

Are state governments falling short of taking the IMD’s advisory as seriously as they should be, given the fatalities due to an avalanche in Sikkim and heatstroke during a political rally in Maharashtra in April this year?

No, I don’t think so. In disaster management, every agency has to work in tandem, and, therefore, the warning system service providers, response action and preparedness agencies, as well as mitigation agencies work unitedly. In the case of the Sikkim avalanche, I won’t be able to comment since it is not our domain. Regarding the incidents such as the one in Maharashtra, we always share the heatwave warning and impact thereof, as early as five days before the weather event, with both the Union and the state governments. We only predict about heatwaves while the heat action plan is monitored by the National Disaster Management Authority.

What are the negative impacts of climate change we are witnessing?

India is no exception to the negative impact of climate change, which is a global crisis. Climate change is most pronounced when there is an increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme weather events. Weather records show that India has been experiencing an increase in the extreme heatwave frequency, duration and intensity due to climate change. Meanwhile, there has been a decline in the duration and frequency of coldwaves. India is also experiencing frequent heavy rainfall events, especially in the central part of the country.

Was the fog in Delhi in May this year also an outcome of climate change?

You can’t attribute everything to climate change. There are variations in climate, too. There are year-to-year variations. A one-off random event cannot be attributed to climate change. One has to understand what is climate change there has to be a shift of an entire climate behaviour.

Do you think there’s an uptick in incidents of extreme weather events?

Yes, of course, there has been an increase in extreme weather events. Along with heatwaves and heavy rainfall, India is experiencing a considerable rise in lightning and thunderstorm activities.

With the change in the rainfall pattern, is there a possibility that the North-East, which is considered a wet region, could face droughts while Rajasthan, a dry region, could experience flash floods?

Yes, there has been a deviation in the rainfall pattern obviously due to climate change. The North-East is witnessing a declining trend in rainfall while the desert regions of Saurashtra and Kutch have been experiencing a rise in the amount of total rainfall. Whether the North-East would turn into a dry region in future, I won’t be able to comment. As for the flash floods in Rajasthan, I wouldn’t be able to predict, but yes, heavy rainfall activities are being witnessed in the area.

Are Doppler weather radars needed in each district for better forecast?

No, I don’t think India needs Doppler weather radars in each district. Each such radar has a range of 300-400 km, and the entire country is being covered by 32 Doppler weather radars. In small states like in the North-East, we need only a few radars system to detect; therefore, numbers don’t count.

What we need is a better coverage area of Dopplers to detect severe weather activity.

Do you see chances of drought in the country given the below-normal rainfall in the northwest region due to El Nino?

No, our projections don’t factor in any drought. There is a prediction of below-normal rainfall in the northwest region due to El Nino but not that of any drought. We only predict the amount of rainfall in any region. The Ministry of Agriculture looks after the domain of drought and its management.

Has there been an increase in the number of cyclones in the Indian Ocean, and if yes, the reason thereof?

No, we don’t see any increase in the number of cyclones in the Indian Ocean. However, there has been an increase in very severe cyclones in the Arabian Sea from 1990 onwards, and an expert committee has to find out the reasons. Obviously, there are chances of a rise in very severe cyclones due to climate change.

Are you planning the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in lowering the standard deviation of error in forecasting?

We have already started working on using AI forecasting. We have joined hands with various research institutes like the Indian Institute of Technology and the Indian Institute of Information Technology. They are working on it, and once they come out with something new, we will definitely use it.

Where do you think the IMD needs improvement?

Since there has been a rise in extreme weather events owing to climate change, early prediction has become more important. Though we have been upgrading and adopting new technology in weather forecasting, we need to be better in predicting lightning.

The number of deaths has, of course, reduced in cyclones. However, a lot of people still die in the country when lightning strikes. Now, our target is to improve the detection and prediction of lightning to reduce fatalities. Along with this, we have been working on issuing impact-based weather forecasts to be more location-specific so that the end-users, including farmers, industrialists, tourists and businessmen, could benefit in a much better way.