Taming the new field of space wars

Ajay Banerjee

Ongoing technological breakthroughs mean that the ability of one country to destroy or disable the space assets of another country will decide the outcomes of future conflicts.

So, can India match up to the growing prowess of China, its adversarial neighbour across the Himalayas? In the last four years, China has doubled its space assets for intelligence gathering and surveillance, allowing it to monitor, track and target forces of other countries worldwide.

‘Challenges to Security in Space-2022’, a report by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released in April this year, said: “As of January 2022, China’s ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) satellite fleet contained more than 250 systems — a quantity second only to the United States, and nearly doubling China’s in-orbit systems since 2018.”

Technology has moved beyond satellite-based global positioning system (GPS) used for targeted strikes, first used by the US during the 1991 Gulf War. The scenarios available to military commanders today include the anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon that can destroy a satellite in space; China, Russia, the US and India have tested ASAT. “Its usage is like a nuclear weapon. Once you demonstrate the ability, you hold it back as a deterrent,” said a serving military officer who did not wish to be identified.

Lt Gen Raj Shukla (retd), former Commander of the Army Training Command (ARTRAC), says, “Space is a domain for warfighting and we need to first accept that and then re-look at our space outlook.”

Evolving space warfare

As of today, the warfare directed at space assets can neutralise all other formats of war-fighting on ground, in air or at sea as defence and offence relies partly or wholly on space.

Air Marshal Anil Chopra (retd), Director General of think-tank Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), says, “In military operations, space supports intelligence surveillance, reconnaissance, secure communications, navigation, precision weapon delivery, electronic warfare and cyber operations, among others.”

China’s testing of an advanced hypersonic fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) in August last year caught the US intelligence community by surprise. It involved launching a nuclear weapon into low-Earth orbit — around 150 km — where it stays as it floats above the planet, before coming back into the atmosphere to hit the intended target.

During the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, a satellite communication system known as Starlink, owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, was available with the Ukrainian forces. It provided real-time targets for directing artillery fire and secured internet and GPS for the Ukrainian forces on ground. Space was first used during the Cold War (1945-1991) when the US and the erstwhile USSR developed inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can go up to an altitude of 900-1,600 km before descending to hit a target on ground.

The UN-facilitated Outer Space Treaty (OST) 1967 regulates exploration and use of outer space; however, it has no general, explicit prohibition on ‘militarising’ space, except the prohibition of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons.

To explain, war-fighting missiles like ICBMs can use space to travel, but warfare ‘in space’ and ‘from space’ are prohibited. However, these clearly are the emerging threats despite the 1967 treaty. “We need to revisit and re-evolve the treaty,” adds Air Marshal Chopra.

The boom and the future

The year 2021 saw a record number of 1,809 satellites being placed in orbit, says the data of the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). China sent 108 of these. This year alone, 755 satellites have been launched till May 31; of these, 46 were by China and nine of these happened on the same day on May 5. “In case of China, their civil space programmes flow from their military space programme,” says Lt Gen Shukla, who seeks a more rapidly evolving space programme for India.

In all, there are 8,837 satellites in orbit, says UNOOSA. Some 20 per cent are estimated to be purely military-use satellites. The future, insists Air Marshal Chopra, is evolving. “Satellite operations will go beyond the direct intercept and kinetic kill. Directed energy weapons like high-powered lasers and microwaves, robotic grab missions, electronic jamming and spoofing of data links will be the other means,” he says.

Emerging tech is rapidly changing

As of now, satellites run out of fuel within a few years. However, this is set to change soon. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working on robotics to service satellites in space to make them work longer and this includes refuelling in mid-space. The other technology it is using is nuclear power, which would entail an unending supply.

In February, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) hosted a seminar — ‘Atoms for Space: Nuclear Systems for Space Exploration’. Over 500 delegates from 66 countries attended. Mikhail Chudakov, IAEA Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Nuclear Energy, was quoted as saying: “Future missions could rely on nuclear-powered systems for a much broader spectrum of applications.”

India’s military use of space

Sometime since the late 1990s, imagery was used from international satellites. In 2013, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) launched the GSAT-7 (known as Rukmini). All ships and planes are connected to it.

In December 2018, ISRO launched the GSAT-7A satellite equipped with Ku-band transponders, to interlink IAF fighter aircraft, airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platforms, unmanned aerial vehicles, ground radar stations and major airbases — the kind of connectivity which provided real-time inputs during the Balakot air-strikes of February 2019.

The Army uses 30 per cent of GSAT-7A’s capacity for communication until its own GSAT-7B gets launched. Separately, the Ministry of Defence okayed the GSAT-7C last November to provide secure communication for the IAF. Last year, a satellite was launched just to track ships in the Indian Ocean. It provides direct feed at a multi-agency centre headed by the Navy.

Conversely, a capability gap exists when compared to our adversaries. “The Chinese were much behind us, but they drew lessons from the 1991 Gulf War and are now the second largest player,” said a serving officer.

The alarms bells have been sounded in India and decisive steps are underway. However, some key technology components are still imported, hence a fear of getting ‘choked’ for supplies in a crisis exists.

India-US space cooperation

At the 2+2 ministerial dialogue in April this year, India and the US signed a new Space Situational Awareness (SSA) arrangement, acknowledging the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the long-term sustainability and safety of the outer-space environment.

The India-US Civil Space Joint Working Group spans cutting-edge earth observation capabilities to interplanetary exploration and supports new opportunities for collaboration, including in the areas of human space flight and exploration.

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, or NISAR, satellite is set for launch in 2023. It has been designed to observe the earth and its changes. ISRO has also identified a range of applications of relevance to India, including monitoring of snow and glacier studies, coastal and ocean studies.

Nodal agency

• The Defence Space Agency, headed by IAF having representatives of all services, is the nodal agency for planning for military needs.
• It looks at technologies to provide space situational awareness to detect, identify and track enemy assets while warning about any impending attacks.
• A Request for Information — the first step in the tendering process — was issued in January 2021 for such technologies.
• The space surveillance data will be fused into a common operating picture to better evaluate threats and to maximise the effectiveness of Indian operations in space, land, sea and air.

Chinese domination

• The Chinese have not missed a single milestone in space research.
• The PLA considers electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to be critical assets for modern warfare. It routinely incorporates in its exercises jamming and anti-jamming techniques that probably are intended to deny multiple types of space-based communications, radar systems and GPS navigation support to military movement and precision-guided munitions employment.
• China probably is developing jammers that will be aboard military reconnaissance platforms, capable of interfering with satellites by denying imagery.

Civil space sector

The Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe) has signed MoUs with private-sector companies for space-based applications and services. It is an autonomous and single-window nodal agency in the Department of Space for promotion & regulation of space activities.