Arvind Kejriwal: The making of a national leader

Sandeep Dikshit

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is today at a defining crossroads of his political career after many false turns in his attempt to break out of Delhi, considered merely half a state as law and order is not under the democratically elected government. Earlier, AAP’s forays in Haryana had failed to sizzle, Uttar Pradesh was always a bridge too far and there was polite curiosity about the party in other places such as Gujarat, where it had tentatively tested the political waters.

Till Punjab turned AAP’s fortunes around in a manner not anticipated even by its core circle, Kejriwal was seen as a one-man force tilting fruitlessly against the established political windmills. Despite being the leading Opposition party after the Punjab elections in 2017, the desertions from AAP’s legislative ranks had garnered more publicity than any worthwhile intervention from its MLAs that might have impacted public policy in a big way.

The biggest bonus from the massive landslide in Punjab is that the tag of AAP being the B team of the BJP will start wearing thin. It was fine to allege that in Hindu-dominated areas of Delhi or elsewhere, AAP was beneficial to the BJP as it took away votes that would have gone to the Congress. This was a spurious argument at one level. There was a vacuum caused by the Congress becoming unattractive in Delhi. AAP managed to position itself brilliantly in Delhi and sold a vision that put it ahead of the BJP that the Congress was in no position to emulate. The fact that each and every Muslim bastion in Delhi went with AAP means that the electorate did not buy this line of reasoning.

Neither did Punjab. All sections in the state reposed faith in the party, be it Hindus, Sikhs or the Muslims of Malerkotla. In Uttarakhand, too, AAP managed to pick up substantial disgruntled Sikh votes in at least two constituencies of Bajpur and Kashipur. If getting Sikh votes is a watermark, the so-called B team of the BJP has accomplished what the A team itself could not do despite the decades of association with the Akali Dal in Punjab, in and out of government.

For starters, the acceptability of AAP all across Punjab has implications for Himachal and Haryana, once part of undivided Punjab till the mid-1960s. To some extent, the BJP and almost all other parties in Haryana now have the second and third generation progenies of former leaders still maintaining a stranglehold over the polity, much like Punjab. With the passing away of Virbhadra Singh and GS Bali, the Congress is left with former journalist Mukesh Agnihotri as the leader of the current crop of remaining uninspiring leaders of the Congress in Himachal.

And if AAP becomes a strong contender for the electorate’s affections in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in these two states, Kejriwal could well be regarded as among the top contenders to take on Narendra Modi. So far, the argument in non-BJP circles was how could Kejriwal, without even winning the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, emerge as the PM nominee? With seven seats from Delhi, 13 of Punjab, 10 of Haryana and four of Himachal, Kejriwal can be considered a putative leader, theoretically at par with leaders of other states with similar prime ministerial ambitions.

AAP has two years to present its alternative vision on Punjab. A caring hand for the poor and resolute attention to the health and education sectors, long regarded as money-siphoning enterprises for the two parties perennially in power in Punjab, is likely to propel Kejriwal ahead of other PM contenders like Mamata Banerjee, who have neither been able to make political headway outside their power bases, nor ameliorate the serious shortcomings in the health and education sectors.

Add to it the absence of sleaze that dogs practically every other aspirant for the Delhi crown, and AAP will become an attractive commodity even in UP, where Kejriwal’s spirited but doomed contest against Modi in 2014 is still recalled at the ghats of Varanasi.

Unlike other future aspirants, what will stand Kejriwal in good stead is that his deputy in Delhi, Manish Sisodia, can seamlessly keep the government humming while the leader is out building the party or preparing for a bigger assignment. It is a truism that without securing the backyard, it is impossible to build the scaffolding. Kejriwal has this issue covered unlike Telangana Chief Minister KC Rao or Mamata Banerjee, or even the rank outsider Nitish Kumar.

There is the language issue that leaders from the East and the South have to grapple with. Mamata can evoke sympathetic amusement with her broken Hindi. KC Rao does not even try. For Kejriwal, rabble rousing in the cow belt comes naturally. With most leaders in the Hindi heartland having been rendered ineffectual by the raging BJP tsunami of more than seven years, Kejriwal is the only leader who has withstood it. And now, having left the Congress, BSP, Akali Dal and the BJP in tatters, Kejriwal remains the sole credible opponent to PM Modi in North India.

Uttarakhand.
Kernels of growth emerge
The Aam Aadmi Party began evoking curiosity in Uttarakhand after its hoardings went up on highways leading to the Himalayas. But the elections later settled into a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress. Most of the AAP candidates lost ignominiously: 485 votes for Darshan Dobhal in Chakrata, just 406 for Nayan Ram in Dharchula, 340 for Dewan Singh Mehta in Didihat. The list is long. But amidst this bleak scenario, there was the brave fight put up by Sunita Tamta in Bajpur, Vasant Kumar in Bageshwar and AAP’s Uttarakhand CM candidate Col Ajay Kothiyal in Gangotri. The Congress barely squeaked through in Bajpur, a major reason being the loss of Sikh votes to Sunita. The three constituencies represent the state’s main sub-regions: the plains, Kumaon and Garhwal. It is a commentary on the Congress’ organisational inabilities that Sunita and Vasant are not just former party activists, but come from the marginalised classes. The bachelor Colonel Kothiyal, with a Kirti Chakra, Shaurya Chakra and VSM, has the right credentials in this ex-servicemen-dominated state, home to the Army’s Garhwal and Kumaon regiments. For a state where people have had a binary choice between the Congress and the BJP, after winning Punjab, AAP is just in the right spot.

Goa.
Inroad has been made
AAP had made a determined push here in 2017 but had flattered to deceive. Elvis Gomes, its CM nominee, came a poor fourth. This time, not only did AAP make an entry into the Goa Assembly with two seats, its breakaway faction, Revolutionary Goans Party, also won one seat. Besides winning these three seats, the two parties upset the applecart of the established parties in five other constituencies. AAP admittedly has a mountain to climb in Goa. But with the two-seat beachhead, AAP is in a position to reap the disaffection with the existing setup where legislative loyalties are fickle, to the dismay of the electorate.

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