Shimla: Locals, tourists see red as weatherman gets orange alert wrong

Subhash Rajta

Shimla, July 1

Sita Ram Verma, an apple grower at a village near Shimla, is quite upset with the weather department. “I have been postponing fungicide spray in my orchard for the last three days as the department had issued an orange alert for heavy to very heavy rain for June 29-30 and July 1. However, there has hardly been any rain over the last three days,” he said.

Likewise, several people, particularly tourists, either put off or altered their commuting plans in view of a warning of localised flooding of roads, landslides and occasional reduction in visibility, said Gaurav Thakur, a travel agent. The orange alert had been quite off the mark as only light to moderate rainfall was experienced at isolated places, he said.

Tougher in hills

Compared to the plains, predicting weather with high accuracy is tougher in the hills, mainly due to frequent change in wind direction. The forecast model sometimes fails to capture micro movements, leading to a variation in the forecast and the actual weather. —Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President, Skymet

Surender Paul, Director, Meteorological Centre, Shimla, said, “At times, the weather forecast system tends to overestimate precipitation in hilly areas due to orographic conditions. It mainly happens during the slow monsoon conditions, which is the case at present.”

Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of private forecast agency Skymet, agrees with Paul. “Compared to the plains, predicting weather with high accuracy is tougher in the hills, mainly due to the frequent change in wind direction. The forecast model sometimes fails to capture micro movements, leading to a variation in the forecast and the actual weather,” he said.

Be that as it may, the forecast shouldn’t be as wrong as it was over the last three days, argued Gaurav. “The alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall was for isolated parts, which means 25 per cent of the areas likely to be affected by the alert. We can, however, look into the possibility of mentioning the places most likely to be affected by the alert so that people of other places are not affected,” said Paul.

He added the weather forecast accuracy could be improved if more observatory points were set up. Incidentally, the department has issued an orange alert for heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places tomorrow as well.