Parties in a fix as Himachal witnesses repeat of 2017 election scenario

KS Tomar

Advertisement

It is a repeat of 2017 Assembly elections scenario when politicians, common people, journalists etc. passed through almost a month-long wait to cross-check the authenticity of their calculations and optimism about the verdict of the electorates. An identical scenario is being witnessed in Himachal these days.

The leaders and workers of two major political parties comprising ruling BJP and Congress are in a fix as the silent mood of electorates and high percentage of polling may give a setback to their dream of positive outcome on December 8. People residing in every village, town and city are seen discussing the possible scenarios after the counting which may go beyond the ideological logic.

The BJP high command has acquired a dubious distinction of converting the defeat into victory through purchase of rival parties’ MLAs which is being contemplated in this hilly state.

Contrary to it, Congress leaders are premeditating that the next level of resentment prevailing amongst the people coupled with the impact of old pension scheme will contribute to the ouster of the BJP government. But they will have to wait for a few days more.

Analysts believe that if Congress comes to power then it will be a numbers game of loyalists of a particular group which will have the final sway in the election of a leader for the post of chief minister.

One thing is certain that Priyanka may not repeat the blunder of Punjab in Himachal hence majority MLAs of a group may prove decider.

Second, the issue will be handled by new national president of Congress, Mallikarjun Kharge, who is too senior to permit the state to create confusion and offer the state to give it on a plate to BJP provided party stages a comeback.

Regarding the majority of party rebels, the BJP think tank says that if they win then it will not be difficult to lure them back and offer ministerial posts but nothing is certain about such victory as division of votes of party cadres may give a setback to such calculations.

In final assessment, if voters decisively give their verdict in favor of Congress and it crosses 40 mark then purchase of MLAs will become extremely difficult for the BJP.

BJP’s high voltage campaign did push Congress backdoor but will it help the ruling party to neutralize the anti-incumbency factor and ascertain Nadda’s claim about existence of pro incumbency?

On Congress front, besides Priyanka and national leaders, it was trio comprising of state president Pratibha Singh, CLP leader Mukesh Agnihotri and campaign committee chief Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, who addressed rallies which did give an impression of fighting the polls in unison. Congress utilized the acumenship of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan chief ministers to convince the employees that they have already implemented the OPS which shall be made a reality if Congress came to power.

Financial experts say that any state government is fully empowered to implement the OPS and the Centre cannot stop it. In case Mission Repeat is successful then chapter is automatically closed but BJP agony will be compounded if it does not cross the figure of 20 seats.

Experts say that these are all conjectures and may not be nearer to reality at all hence BJP and Congress leaders should keep fingers crossed and the former can keep their optimism alive about retaining the power whereas the former is at liberty to feel confident to snatch the power from the BJP.

Number game to matter

Analysts believe that if the Congress comes to power, then it will be a number game of loyalists of a particular group which will have the final say in the election of a leader for the post of chief minister.

(Writer is senior journalist based in Shimla)