State heading towards warmer, drier winter
Already reeling under a dry spell for over two months now, there’s more bad news coming in for the state from the weather department. As per the weather department, the winter months - December to February - are likely to be warmer than normal. “As per the temperature pattern and number of cold wave days, the state is likely to experience warmer than normal winters this year,” said Shobhit Katiyar, a scientist from the weather department.
As per the department, there’s a high probability of mean maximum temperatures to remain above normal and moderate probability of mean minimum temperatures to stay above normal. Also, there will be about 10-20 per cent lesser number of cold wave days over most parts of state in these three months.
Apart from indicating warmer winters, the temperature pattern and reduced number of cold wave days also hint at a drier winters. As it is, the rain forecast for December is not encouraging. As per the department, there is a moderate probability that the most parts of the state will get below normal rainfall, except some parts of Una, Hamirpur and the adjoining Kangra district this month.
While the department hasn’t released the forecast for precipitation in the month of January and February, the warmer temperatures and reduced number of cold wave days suggest that the state could have less than normal precipitation in these two months. The less than normal precipitation in January and February over the last few years in the state also indicates at an evolving trend of reduced precipitation in the winters.
Having already endured a two-month long dry spell, the forecast of warmer and possibly drier winters has come as shocker for the fruit growers and farmers of the state. “It almost seems like a repeat of last year when we had some snowfall only towards the February end and March. This change in weather is going to pose a big challenge for the fruit growers and farmers of the state,” said Harish Chauhan, a progressive apple grower form Rohru.
The apple growers, in particular, feel that such prolonged dry spells will push plants into stress and eventually most of the plants will die. “Besides, the impact of erratic weather could be seen in the ever declining production of apple over the last few years. The erratic weather has emerged as a big challenge, but no serious efforts are being made at any level to cope with this challenge,” said Chauhan.
