Study: 45% of state prone to multiple natural disasters

A recent study conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Ropar, has revealed that nearly 45% of Himachal Pradesh is vulnerable to landslides, floods and avalanches. This alarming finding has raised concerns among state authorities and climate activists, emphasising the need for better disaster management strategies.

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The study, which involved hazard susceptibility mapping of the state, was carried out by MTech scholar Daishisha Lawphniaw under the guidance of Reet Kamal Tiwari, an associate professor at IIT Ropar. It was part of a broader effort by researchers from multiple IITs to assess multi-hazard vulnerability across the Himalayan states. The findings were also presented at the Indian Cryosphere Meet (ICM) held at IIT Bombay, attended by over 80 glaciologists, scientists and experts worldwide.

The research identified specific regions at high risk of multiple natural hazards occurring simultaneously, such as flash floods, avalanches and earthquakes. Using geospatial data, the team determined that areas with slopes between 5.9 and 16.4 degrees and elevations up to 1,600 metres are particularly prone to both landslides and floods. Meanwhile, higher-altitude regions with slopes between 16.8 and 41.5 degrees are more likely to experience both avalanches and landslides. The highest-risk zones were found in steep mountain slopes and elevations above 3,000 metres.

The study highlighted that flood and landslide-prone zones are primarily located in lower-elevation river valleys and hills, affecting districts such as Kangra, Kullu, Mandi, Una, Hamirpur, Bilaspur and Chamba. In contrast, high-altitude areas in Kinnaur and Lahaul-Spiti face a greater threat from avalanches.

Experts warned that one calamity could trigger another due to shared underlying causes, making disaster planning and risk management crucial. The study’’s findings provide valuable insights for authorities in formulating stronger disaster risk reduction strategies for the hill state.

Despite the significance of the study, the Himachal Pradesh government has yet to receive an official copy of the report from the Central Government. A senior state government official stated that while he had come across the report in newspapers, the administration was still awaiting an official copy. Once received, necessary steps would be taken to address the concerns raised in the study.

Himachal Pradesh has witnessed a rise in cloudbursts and flash floods in recent years, causing significant loss of life and property. Experts attribute this trend to increasing human interference, particularly in eco-sensitive zones of the Himalayas. Factors such as climate change, unauthorised construction on unstable slopes and floodplains, and deforestation have worsened the situation.

A 2023 report by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) also emphasised these concerns, stating that unregulated urbanisation and deforestation in fragile Himalayan regions contribute to the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters.

With the state’s vulnerability now well-documented, experts stress the importance of implementing effective mitigation strategies, improving early warning systems and enforcing stricter regulations to minimise the impact of future calamities.