Crackdown and after

Comparisons are odious, but the starkly different dynamics of the two recent farmers’ agitations point to the shifting strands of public support and political positioning in Punjab. Fuelled by massive public and political backing, the Kisan Andolan 1.0 on Delhi’s borders in 2020-21, led by the Samyukt Kisan Morcha, resulted in the withdrawal of the three controversial farm laws by the Centre. In contrast, the Kisan Andolan 2.0, started by the Samyukt Kisan Morcha Non Political and Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM) on the Punjab-Haryana border in February last year, has seen dwindling public sympathy, a flip-flop political reaction and an agitation-fatigue setting in over the endless rounds of protests and rail-road blockades.

That said, while the success of Kisan Andolan 1.0 led to a power struggle amongst its leaders, the abrupt end of Kisan Andolan 2.0 seems to be paving the way for a reunion of the breakaway farmer groups.

Talk of urban-rural polarisation in Punjab over the year-long closure of the Shambhu and Khanauri borders — the lifeline of trade and industry — may be far-fetched, but experts stress the need for dialogue and finding common ground.

Last week’s action by the AAP government led to the arrest of top farmer leaders and eviction of the protesting farmers to clear the national highways. The protest had begun on February 13 last year at both Shambhu and Khanauri, after four rounds of talks with the Centre’s ministerial panel failed. The Haryana government refused to allow the protesters into their territory, and set up concrete blockades.

On February 21, when the farmers began their ‘Dilli Chalo’ march, 22-year-old farmer Shubhkaran Singh was shot. The Supreme Court constituted a high-powered committee to hold negotiations with the farmers. As the number of protesters at Khanauri dwindled and with public support waning, farmer leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal began an indefinite fast on November 26.

On January 18 this year, a Centre-led panel invited the two farm unions for talks, which were held on February 14, 22 and March 19. The next round is due on May 4.

The Centre last year offered MSP for five years on oilseeds and pulses, but the farmers stuck to their stand of MSP on all crops. They are also seeking fixing of MSP on crops by using the C2+50 per cent formula recommended by the Swaminathan Commission. The demand list includes pension for farmers and farm labourers, a farm debt waiver, no hike in electricity tariff, withdrawal of police cases and justice for victims of the 2021 Lakhimpur Kheri violence, besides compensation to the families of farmers who died during the agitation in 2020-21.

That Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s patience with the farmer unions and their “over-activism” was running thin was apparent when twice in the recent past, he made scathing remarks against them. When he walked out of the meeting with the farmer leaders on March 3, it was an indication that the government was no longer willing to adopt a go-soft policy.

On the intervening night of March 4 and 5, the Punjab Police swooped down at residences of leaders of farmer unions aligned with the Samyukt Kisan Morcha, detaining many of them. This resulted in quelling their proposed morcha at Chandigarh. In hindsight, it appears to have been a trailer for ‘Operation Highway’ launched on March 19.

Though the decision to remove the protesting farmers was taken earlier this month, the date was decided after the doyens of industry met AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal and Mann at Ludhiana. When asked to scale up their investment in the state, the industrialists rued the poor economic sentiment because of the farmers’ protests.

KMM leader GS Mangat claims the eviction was a well-planned move to win the Ludhiana West bypoll, the date for which is yet to be announced. “We have not lost public support, the government has lost the trust of the rural population. If AAP is so confident, why are its leaders not visiting villages?” he asks.

Economist Prof KS Bhangoo says, “Even though the government has managed to quell the protest for the time being, the police action has again brought the farmers’ issues of legal guarantee on MSP to the forefront. That is why the Centre is still engaged in talks. We grow wheat in 18 per cent of geographical area yet contribute 47 per cent to the Central pool. Our contribution of paddy to the Central pool is 22 per cent. The world takes our farmers seriously.”

He admits that the farmer leaders misread the ground situation: “The first agitation had public support. The leaders were all together and were good negotiators. In this case, when reports started coming in that the state was suffering losses, the farmer leaders should have retracted. Lack of unity has also proved to be their major undoing.”

While a cross-section of Punjab’s residents has lauded the clearing of highways, there is scepticism too over what lies ahead and the handling of the situation. “To not take any retaliatory step may be a tactical retreat by farmer unions. They will reinvigorate their cadres, rebuild public perception and plan some big action. The guns that were earlier trained on the BJP-led Centre are now targeted at the AAP government,” says a former officer who has had a long experience in negotiating with farmers’ unions.

Since the crackdown took place immediately after three Central ministers held a meeting with 28 farmer leaders, it has given the BJP a handle to take on AAP. Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said that while the BJP was peacefully negotiating with farmers, AAP had uprooted them. This has sent worrying signals in Punjab’s ruling party, which came to power riding on the support of BKU Ekta Ugrahan in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections.

Meanwhile, the three farmer forums have little option but to regroup. The first signals of such an eventuality came when the SKM and BKU Ekta Ugrahan refused to participate in a meeting convened by Agriculture Minister GS Khudian. “We know that talks are the only way forward, but the atmosphere has to be conducive,” said Joginder Singh Ugrahan.

By announcing a protest against “state oppression” on March 28, and trying to make it a wider people’s movement by asking all trade unions to join, the farmer leaders are attempting to gain lost ground.