Pakistan’s water woes deepen after India abrogates Indus Treaty

A month after Pakistan sounded an alarm over the shortage of water in the Indus River System, the lifeline of its agro-economy, following the abrogation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by India, it is facing a hydro-crises with unpredictable water releases by India, low storage levels at its crucial dams and non-availability of water data.

Official information reveals that while there has been a wide fluctuation in the levels of the Chenab River over the past five weeks, the outflow in the Jhelum has been considerably lesser than last year.

On the other hand, the level in the Indus River was considerably higher in during the first three weeks of May as compared to the same period last year, but over the past week, it has come down to below what it was last year.

Data released by Pakistani establishments like the Indus River System Authority and the Water and Power Development Authority reveals that from May 1 till June 4, the inflow at the Marala Headworks in Pakistan, the first barrage on the Chenab after it enters Pakistan, was 12.34 lakh cusecs compared to 13.33 lakh cusecs for this period last year.

At the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum in Pakistan, the inflow has been 15.19 lakh cusecs during the aforementioned period as compared to 22.29 lakh cusecs for last year’s corresponding period.

At Pakistan’s Tarbela Dam that lies on the Indus, the inflow recorded over the past five weeks was 43.59 lakh cusecs, significantly higher than 29.05 lakh cusecs over the same period last year.

“There may be more than one reason for this. It could imply that probably there is now more utilisation of water on the Indian side. We had already written to Pakistan for modification of the treaty,” Dr Uttam Kumar Sinha, an expert on trans-boundary rivers at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis said. “One would also need to study inflows of the past years to discern any trend related to environmental factors,” he added.

Agriculture accounts for about 25 per cent of the GDP and 40 per cent of the labour force in Pakistan’s beleaguered economy. Water shortages would have a strong impact on that country’s economy, which has already recorded a lower growth rate of 2.68 per cent for 2024-25 compared to the target of 3.6 per cent.

The IWT was abrogated as part of the retaliatory measures against the terror attack by Pakistan-backed terrorists at Pahalgam in which 26 persons were killed on April 22. Reducing flow of water in the aforementioned ‘western’ rivers, allocated post-Independence to Pakistan under the treaty, was part of this action.

After a spike to 66,548 cusecs in the Chenab on May 3 from the average outflows of 25,000-35,000 cusecs, India drastically reduced it to 11,423 cusecs. Fluctuating releases touched a high of 78,379 cusecs on May 30 and then plummeted to 22,062 cusecs on June 1 before showing a marginal increase.

Flows in the Jhelum have remained consistently lower during this period as compared to last year. The highest inflow at Mangla was 54,429 cusecs on May 9, which came down to 33,220 cusecs on June 4.

While inflows at the Tarbela Dam peaked at 1,81,100 cusecs on May 28, there has been a sharp dip subsequently to 81,400 cusecs on May 4. For the past two days, inflows have slipped below last year’s figures. The highest inflow during this period last year was about 1,52,00 cusecs.

The total capacity of Tarbela Dam is 11.62 million acre feet (MAF) and that of the Mangla Dam is 7.3 MAF. The water availability as forecast by Pakistani authorities for the June 1-10 period for these dams is 2-2.5 MAF and 0.75-0.85 MAF, respectively.

On the Indian side, major dams on the Chenab include Salal, Baglihar and Dul Hasti, and Krishanganga, Uri-I and Uri-II on the Jhelum. These are primarily hydro-power generation projects and have small storage capacity. In addition, there are several run-of-the-river projects on tributaries feeding these rivers. There is one small dam, Nimoo Bazgo, on the Indus in Ladakh.

After the abrogation of the IWT, India had resorted to flushing out these dams to remove accumulated silt and increase the storage capacity of their reservoirs. Sharing of hydrological data with Pakistan was also stopped, which would affect their forecasts and projections for water management.

At present about 0.4 per cent of the water the western rivers, which have a total annual flow of 136 MAF, is being stored. The government is working on plans to enhance this to 2 per cent.