After Hasina’s exit, greater Chinese presence likely to be reality in B’desh

Ajay Banerjee

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Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 10

With pro-India Prime Minster Sheikh Hasina having been forced out of Bangladesh after a 15-year tenure, the security calculus in the Bay of Bengal is bound to change as China and its ally Pakistan will look to turn the tide against India, say defence analysts.

If a radical anti-India Government, backed by a belligerent China, gets installed in Dhaka, it could mean greater presence of Beijing and its navy in the Bay of Bengal, the experts point out. A key question doing the rounds in security circles is whether such a regime would allow a military third front to be opened against New Delhi? While a two-front simultaneous and collusive conflict with Pakistan and China is part of the Indian wartime preparations, the third front could change the dynamics.

During the Hasina-led Awami League’s 15-year rule, China supplied submarines, warships, military equipment and even built a major submarine base near Cox Bazaar, ironically naming it BNS Sheikh Hasina.

About likely changes post-Hasina, Commodore Uday Bhaskar (retd) says, “India may have to contend with greater Chinese activity and presence in the maritime space. China will seek to consolidate its footprint in Bangladesh.” Commodore Bhaskar sees low probability of a formal Sino-Pakistan-Bangladesh military front against India, unless the new team in Dhaka is virulently opposed to New Delhi.

Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (retd) maintains that China will be first off the mark to woo the new Bangladesh regime, aiming to ensure Dhaka doesn’t get close to New Delhi. “But Bangladesh becoming a third front doesn’t seem to be on the cards, with Dhaka knowing it well India surrounds it from all sides,” says Lt Gen Sharma.

The developments in Bangladesh also raise a question mark on the $500 million credit line for military equipment that New Delhi had operationalised last year, which the neighbouring nation has used to finalise a few minor deals with India for equipment. In June, the Bangladesh navy had inked a deal with India’s state-run Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE) for an 800-tonne ocean-going tug. The second contract for the GRSE was worth $16.6 million (~132 crore) from the Bangladesh Inland Waterways Transport Authority for building a dredger.

The India-Bangladesh ties during the Hasina rule were different from the Khaleda Zia-led regime (2001-06). The biggest change was the “direct connection” Indian armed forces had created with their Bangladeshi counterparts.

Smruti S Pattanaik, research fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (MPIDSA), says, “The two militaries have an evolved relationship, especially after 2008. The links are deep and they conduct joint exercises and attend the National Defence College courses in each other’s country”. Like India, the US too should be looking at the situation seriously as a stable Bangladesh is imperative for its wider Indo-Pacific strategy, Pattanaik argues.

The Delhi-Dhaka military ties include the “connect” over the 1971 India-Pakistan war, called as the ‘Liberation War’ by Bangladesh. Regular visits have been happening to mark the Victory Day (December 16, 1971) and scholarships are distributed to the heirs of the Bangladeshi freedom fighters.