Agriculture in for boost as IMD predicts above-normal monsoon this year

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New Delhi, April 15

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said the country would witness above-normal rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon season. A spell of good rains may boost agriculture and wider economic growth, helping to bring down food price inflation.

52% farm area relies on rains

• The monsoon rain critical for India’s agricultural landscape, with 52% of net cultivated area relying on it
• Also crucial for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation
• The prediction of above-normal rainfall during monsoon, therefore, comes as a huge relief

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General, IMD, said, “We have done a study for the period between 1951 and 2023 and found that of the 22 La Nina years in that period, all except two — 1974 and 2000 — have recorded above normal or normal monsoon. Above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, except in some parts of northwest, east and northeast regions, which will experience below-normal rainfall.”

The IMD has based its rainfall forecast on the three climatic phenomena. “The first is El Nino, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover over the Northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the landmass,” the IMD said.

The seasonal rainfall forecast is expected to be 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), which is 870 mm (1970-2020 average). The LPA of rainfall is the rain recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) averaged over a long period like 30 years, 50 years etc. The LPA acts as a benchmark while forecasting quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season.

The IMD will provide an update on the onset of the monsoon and the rainfall distribution during June, July, August and September in mid-May, Dr Mohapatra said.