Alaska summit deadlock means India faces tough diplomatic call on balancing ties between US and Russia

India’s hopes for a positive outcome of the US-Russia summit at Alaska stand jettisoned for now. It faces a tough diplomatic call on how to balance ties between the US and Russia. 

India is facing 50-per cent US tariff on exports, half of which stem from US-imposed punitive measures for buying Russian crude oil. It was hoped in New Delhi that a waiver from punitive tariffs would be achieved had there been a deal announced following the Alaska-summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The outcome at Alaska also leaves the ongoing India-US bilateral trade negotiations in a limbo as the Modi-led government will need to take a call on any further progress amid threats of secondary tariffs.

Trump and Putin could not bridge their differences on Ukraine. International news agencies reported that at their joint press appearance, Putin spoke of an important “agreement” emerging from the talks, while Trump claimed “considerable progress” but confirmed there was no deal. Consequently, it means there is no ceasefire, for now, between Russia and Ukraine.

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in 2022, India has become a major buyer of Russian crude oil, a move the US and its European allies describe as “India’s funding of Russia’s war”.

The US had targeted India with punitive tariffs – the second largest buyer of Russian crude oil – hoping it would stop Moscow’s revenues.

Ahead of the Alaska summit, India had endorsed the meeting and said “it holds the promise of bringing to an end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and opening up the prospects for peace”.

New Delhi has also made it clear that its crude oil imports from Russia are based on market factors and done with the overall objective of ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India.

The Ministry of External Affairs had termed the punitive tariff as “unfortunate” and cited how several other countries, including the US, were importing various goods from Russia.

For India, the impending US threat is secondary tariffs, which if imposed, could sour ties further. Days ahead of the Alaska summit, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of more tariffs if no peace deal emerged. He had asked Europe, to stop importing refined petroleum products from India and impose severe sanctions on countries trading with Russia.

Separately, in the US, a major bill is coming up that would authorise Trump to impose tariffs of up to 500 per cent on countries sustaining Moscow’s war.

The Indian Government, for now, has stood by Russia. Last week, Modi and Putin spoke and committed to deepening the ties. Modi had posted on X, saying, “Had a very good and detailed conversation with my friend President Putin. We reviewed the progress in our bilateral agenda and reaffirmed our commitment to further deepen the India-Russia special and privileged strategic partnership”.

Meanwhile in Alaska, Putin described the meeting as the starting point for a resolution, and suggested their next meeting should be in Moscow.

Trump had said “There are just a very few [sticking points] left.” “Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant — but we have a very good chance of getting there,” he added, without identifying the issues. Trump has expressed hope that Putin would agree to having a deal on Ukraine and warned Russia of “very severe consequences” if it refuses to end the war.

Putin, for his part, has expressed hope that US allies in Europe would not undermine any understandings reached with Trump. The Russian President craftily highlighted cooperation between Second World War, and highlighted the potential for broad commercial and strategic engagement.