Bihar poll: Litmus test for Nitish, Tejashwi, Chirag, Kishor

The Bihar elections will test the mettle of four key players in the state’s electoral landscape, including the oldest warhorse — Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. The elections will be crucial for RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, the chosen political inheritor of former CM Lalu Yadav; Chirag Paswan, the young Dalit leader out to consolidate late father Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy; and Prashant Kishor, the poll strategist whose Jan Suraaj Party is making its electoral debut.

For Nitish Kumar (74), the November elections may well be the last electoral innings. Long famed as “sushasan babu”, Nitish is, for the first time, facing accusations of inadequate governance with law and order a growing concern.

But Nitish’s indispensability to the ruling NDA equation can’t be overstated despite “poor health”. The BJP is going into the elections under Nitish’s leadership, given his ability to command the support of substantial caste bases.

Although Nitish’s caste — Kurmi — comprises 2.87 per cent of the state’s population, he enjoys the support of the Kurmi-Kushwaha bloc of 7 per cent, along with 36 per cent Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs).

Data from the 2023 Bihar caste survey reveals why Nitish remains a key player in Bihar.

The survey found the backward class population in the state at 63.13 per cent. Of these, EBCs — avowed Nitish backers — have the top numerical strength of 36 per cent followed by 27.13 per cent OBCs, 19.65 per cent Scheduled Castes, 15.52 per cent unreserved general section and 1.68 per cent Scheduled Tribes. The survey showed 10 per cent Muslim EBCs in Bihar. Even if the JD(U) was to lose this Muslim bloc due to the alliance with the BJP, Nitish is still likely to get the support of 33 per cent voter base — 7 per cent Kurmis and Kushwahas, and 26 per cent non-Muslim EBCs. This winning formula of Nitish will be tested in the coming poll.

In the 2020 Bihar elections, the RJD, led by Lalu Yadav’s younger son Tejashwi (35), emerged as the biggest party winning 75 of the 144 segments it contested, closely behind the BJP. It was the Congress which pulled the RJD down in 2020. The Congress won just 19 of the 70 seats it fought as against Left parties, which registered a strong result — the CPI-ML winning 12 of the 19 contested segments and the CPM and the CPI bagging two each of the four and six contested, respectively.

A key challenge for Tejashwi will be to strike a reasonable seat-sharing deal with the Congress continuing to assert its dominance and citing the successful Rahul Gandhi-led “vote adhikar yatra” to demand at least 70 seats again and even among these, the meaty and not the tough ones.

As the largest regional player of the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD will face an uphill task balancing all sides, with three additional parties — the Vikassheel Insaan Party, the JMM and the LJP’s faction led by Pashupati Paras on the side of the grand alliance.”

Chirag Paswan (42) contested solo in the 2020 Assembly elections and damaged the JD(U) in several seats. After the demise of LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan in the middle of the 2020 poll cycle, Chirag felt an additional burden of politics when Nitish backed his uncle Pashupati Paras over him in the war of inheritance. Even the ruling BJP sided with Paras until Chirag proved his worth and the situation flipped. Paras, who was inducted into the Union Council of Ministers in July 2021, quit the NDA in April 2025. Chirag, who had quit the NDA in 2020, rejoined in 2023, contested father’s Hajipur Lok Sabha seat and won. In June 2024, PM Narendra Modi included him as a Union Cabinet Minister. All this after Chirag contested 135 of Bihar’s 243 seats in 2020 and was widely seen as having restricted Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) to 43 seats of 115 the party contested. Ahead of the November poll, Chirag has been quite vocal about his criticism of Bihar’s law and order situation under CM Nitish.

He will be a major factor in the seat-sharing talks within the NDA which did not have to contend with Chirag in 2020 when the JD(U) contested 115 seats and the BJP 110 dividing the rest with the Vikasheel Insaan Party and the HAM. The BJP had bagged 74 seats and the JD(U) 43.

After rising to fame as a political strategist with a role in PM Modi’s historic 2014 Lok Sabha win, Prashant Kishor (48) will make his electoral debut in Bihar this season. Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, formed in 2022, is being seen by all sides as a party with the potential to play spoiler by accommodating rebels on all sides. Kishor, with his ground presence and outreach through 2022 to now, has made a perceptible impact, especially among youngsters. It remains to be seen if Kishor’s public influence translates into votes on the ground.