China, not Pakistan, India's No.1 adversary: US report

Despite an intense armed conflict between India and Pakistan earlier this month, New Delhi views China as its "primary adversary" and Islamabad as an "ancillary" security problem.

Advertisement

This has been revealed in the latest 'worldwide threat assessment’ report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency released today.

The report, which takes into account all global developments till May 11, says Pakistan considers India as an "existential threat" and will continue development of battlefield nuclear weapons to offset New Delhi’s conventional military advantage. Pakistan’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programmes are likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey and the UAE, it highlights.

On the India-China relations, the US report says, “Prime Minister Narenda Modi’s priorities will probably focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing New Delhi’s military power... India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem."

It goes on to warn that “ongoing tensions along India and China’s Line of Actual Control (LAC) border demarcation are capable of escalating quickly”. In late October 2024, India and China reached an agreement to move forces away from the two remaining contested positions along the disputed LAC in eastern Ladakh.

India continued to modernise its military in 2024 that included the ability to deter adversaries after it commissioned the second nuclear-powered submarine (INS Arighaat), which is capable of firing a nuclear missile from under the sea.

On the Pakistan-China nexus, the US report says: “Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse...terrorist activity in Afghanistan and Pakistan will challenge military and security forces.

On China’s growing abilities, the US report says the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is striving to integrate advanced technologies to enhance its forces and disruptive military capabilities. “China also sponsors researchers and scientists who illicitly acquire intellectual property innovated by the US Department of Defense-funded research programme," it stresses.

China continues to pour resources into securing its supply chain and developing domestic high-end microelectronics manufacturing capabilities. Also Beijing and Russia are aggressively pursuing new systems, such as hypersonic glide vehicles.

China’s nuclear warhead stockpile probably has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads. “We estimate that China will have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030 — much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels for faster response time," the report says.

China possesses more than 1,000 satellites, including about 500 remote-sensing and surveillance satellites, second only to the US. Significant Chinese resources are to ensure its ability to disrupt, damage, and destroy adversary space capabilities. The PLA has operational anti-satellite missiles intended to target satellites in low earth orbit.

China also has developed a variety of electronic warfare systems dedicated to denying an adversary’s satellite communications and global positioning system (GPS) capabilities during conflict.