Delhi, Bihar, and BMC polls: The year of electoral showdowns

Delhi and Bihar are set to witness intense electoral battles in 2025, with Delhi going to polls in February and Bihar later in the year. Meanwhile, Mumbai’s cash-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) is expected to finally elect its councillors, a process that has been pending since the term of the previous elected councillors ended in March 2022 — nearly three years ago. Additionally, elections will be held to fill Rajya Sabha seats in Assam and Tamil Nadu this year.

All eyes on Delhi, Bihar

After the fiercely contested Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, attention shifts to Delhi and Bihar. Delhi is expected to go to polls in February, while Bihar will likely elect new MLAs in October or November 2025.

There are calls to confer the Bharat Ratna on JD(U) supremo and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, with support from BJP leaders like Giriraj Singh, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, and JD(U)’s Sanjay Jha. However, there are also rumours of Nitish Kumar’s potential retirement from active politics in 2025. If he does exit, it would mark the end of a significant political era in Bihar.

Bihar, a crucial state, will also witness the entry of former political strategist Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party. The party plans to contest all 243 assembly seats and support students protesting alleged corruption in Bihar Public Service Commission (BPSC) exams, a major political issue in the state.

BPSC exams a big poll issue in Bihar

The BPSC exams have become a major poll issue in Bihar, with allegations of corruption in government job recruitments rocking the JD(U)-BJP ruled state. Prashant Kishor claims that “thousands of crores of rupees changed hands” for vacant posts to be filled through BPSC exams. Kishor has been directly targeting Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and on Thursday, he announced a fast unto death to press the demands of protesting BPSC aspirants.

The aspirants are demanding the cancellation of the prelims held last month and a fresh exam. Nearly five lakh candidates appeared at over 900 centres across the state for Combined Competitive Exams conducted by BPSC. However, at one exam centre in Patna, candidates boycotted the exam, alleging that question papers were leaked. BPSC refuted this allegation, calling it a conspiracy to get the exams cancelled.

Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has been supporting the protesting students, who believe that BPSC’s reluctance to order a fresh examination stems from the fact that crores of rupees have already changed hands. The party has given the Bihar Government a 48-hour ultimatum to address the issue.

The Delhi-Bihar connection

The Delhi-Bihar connection is heating up, with BJP eager to win the Delhi Assembly election after a significant drought. The party is pulling out all the stops, deploying its top leaders and seeking support from Bihar allies JD(U) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to sway voters from the crucial Poorvanchal region.

BJP’s efforts are particularly focused on winning over voters from Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh who live in Delhi. This demographic has significant political clout, and BJP hopes that its alliances with JD(U) and LJP will help secure their support.

However, the big question mark hangs over Nitish Kumar’s willingness to help. After his shocking departure from the “mahagathbandhan” (grand alliance) in 2024 and subsequent return to NDA, it remains to be seen whether he will lend his support to BJP’s Delhi ambitions.

BJP-JD(U) relations

The BJP-JD(U) alliance is facing uncertain times, with speculation rife that Nitish Kumar may reconsider his party’s alliance with the BJP-led NDA due to dissatisfaction with BJP. This speculation gained traction after Nitish Kumar’s recent visit to Delhi, where he didn’t meet with BJP leaders.

BJP leaders have dismissed this speculation as “nonsense” generated by their rival, RJD, claiming that several RJD leaders are in talks with them to switch sides. However, reports suggest that BJP’s Delhi unit has refused to allocate seats to the JD(U) for the upcoming elections, and some JD(U) leaders plan to contest independently, indicating friction between the allies.

Bihar observers anticipate significant political developments after Makar Sankranti, which may challenge BJP’s attempt to gain dominance in Bihar. Additionally, there are rumours of a split within JD(U), with key leaders like Sanjay Jha and Lallan Singh reportedly leaning towards BJP. RJD, BJP’s closest rival in Bihar, is closely watching these developments.

Delhi/Bihar 2025

The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP is seeking to retain power in the 70-member Delhi Assembly for the third consecutive time. In the 2020 assembly election, AAP won 63 out of 70 seats, and in 2015, it secured 67 seats. The battle lines are drawn, with Congress’ Sandeep Dikshit, son of late Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, contesting against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal from the New Delhi assembly seat.

In Bihar, the upcoming elections will be the first after the high-profile showdown between the INDIA bloc and NDA in the Maharashtra polls. In the 2020 election, NDA emerged victorious, with BJP winning 74 seats and JD(U) securing 43. The opposition grand alliance won 110 seats, with RJD being the single-largest party with 75 seats. However, the political landscape has changed significantly since then.

Nitish Kumar severed ties with BJP in 2022 and joined hands with RJD and the Congress to form the “mahagathbandhan” government. Just weeks before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, he returned to NDA fold by snapping ties with RJD and the Congress.

BMC polls

The BMC polls are expected to generate significant interest across the country in 2025, following Mahayuti’s grand victory in Maharashtra in 2024. Elections to the country’s richest civic body are slated for early 2025.

The undivided Shiv Sena controlled BMC for 25 consecutive years, from 1997 to 2022. Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) has announced that it will contest the elections as part of the Mahayuti alliance, which comprises BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar).

These elections are crucial for former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, who hopes to retain his relevance in Maharashtra politics as the “true heir to his father Bal Thackeray’s legacy”.