‘Dilli Chalo, advantage Akali Dal’: Will farmers protest 2.0 pose a challenge to Modi 3.0 in Lok Sabha elections

Farmers’ protest seems to have thrown BJP’s well-crafted strategy for 2024 LS elections somewhat off track and given bargaining power to Akali Dal in Punjab

Though the sources say the leadership is "confident" of sailing past the situation, a fact also is that such situations can spoil 'mahaul' environment if any untoward incident takes place.

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, February 13

Till about last week, the ruling BJP appeared to have a perfect strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, or so was the general perception. Even though the announcement of ‘Dilli Chalo’ protest by farmers was made a few weeks back, the party believed that divisions in farmers’ groups, (thereby a lackluster response to the call) and Bharat Ratna for icons like farmer’ icons like Chaudhary Charan Singh and MS Swaminathan had it in control of the situation.

But the dramatic scenes at Shambhu border today have the capacity to spoil favourable perceptions, thereby giving leverage to the Akali Dal in alliance negotiations with the BJP in Punjab, claim observers.

Is BJP worried over farmers’ protest 2.0?

The basic fact is that the current situation is not quite the same as it was around 2020-21 when it all started.

Though Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political) leaders claimed support from 200 farmers' unions from across the country, several prominent faces from 2020-21 are missing from the action.

The SKM (Non-Political) is a breakaway faction of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, the body that led the earlier protests. Jat khaps were also said to be “not keen” in supporting the protests this time.

After the farmer agitation ended in December 2021, differences emerged within the SKM, leading to the creation of the SKM (Non-Political), and subsequently the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM).

The speculation regarding Rashtriya Lok Dal's alliance with the BJP was seen as another setback for the protests.

Government response

The government responded to the situation the way it had in 2020-21, assigning Union ministers Piyush Goyal, Nityanand Rai, and Arjun Munda to the job of persuading farmers unions.

Tuesday morning, however, saw the negotiations between farmer leaders and the Centre fail. Munda and Goyal did not agree to the main demands of farmers, including the legal guarantee for MSP on all crops and pension and debt waiver for farmers and farm labourers.

Though as per sources, Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann also mediated between the Centre government and farmer leaders, AAP is supporting the farmers.

Not taking any chances, the government had imposed tight security on Delhi borders as well as Punjab-Haryana border, leading to dramatic developments today at Shambhu.

Is the Centre ready for MSP?

The belief was that the split in farmer organisations about the Delhi march, lukewarm response from ‘khap’ panchayats and early outreach by the Centre government would result in the protests fizzling out

But, the General Election are around the corner, a situation no opposition party will allow to pass.

According to sources the party and the government is trying to control the situation at multiple levels

According to a leader, the BJP's only worries are the two opposition-ruled states Punjab and Karnataka.

“The protest against farm laws was mostly led by farmers from Punjab and Haryana. The BJP does not mind giving in to MSP demand but that cannot happen the way farmers are demanding. Besides, if they agree to MSP, farmers would start protesting for pension for farmers and farm labourers. It is an election year and opposition parties will also fan the flames. The party leadership is well aware and trying to control the situation through social leaders,” say sources.

‘Dilli Chalo’ has increased value of Akali Dal

In the meantime, the agitation appears to have increased the political heft of the Akali Dal in Punjab.

Being an election year, key players like AAP, Akali Dal and Congress are making the most of the situation, supporting the protests.

Apparently, the protests have led to the Akali Dal increasing its demand, seeking seven Lok Sabha seats in Punjab and two Cabinet posts if Prime Minister Narendra Modi is voted back to power. Piyush Goyal was deployed for talks with farmers because he was also a part of the alliance talks with the Akali Dal

Though the sources say the leadership is "confident" of sailing past the situation, a fact also is that such situations can spoil 'mahaul' environment if any untoward incident takes place.

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