DRDO develops system for real-time, site-specific weather forecast in mountains

Vijay Mohan

Chandigarh, January 3

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has developed a new system for real-time and site-specific weather forecast over the north-western Himalayan region during winter months.

According to DRDO scientists, the system will be instrumental in the mitigation of natural hazards such as extreme temperature, heavy snowfall, avalanches, and landslides. This will not only assist in the movement and deployment of troops in mountain regions, but also be beneficial for the civil administration and the local population of such areas.

Real time weather forecast in remote and difficult terrain assumes significance in the backdrop of not only a high level of operational deployment, but also in the growing tourist influx and increasing socio-economic activities in areas such as Ladakh. Many road axis in this region, which are not only strategically important but also frequented by visitors, are prone to vagaries of nature such as heavy rain, snow, and avalanches.

Developed by the Defence Geo-informatics Research Establishment (DGRE) located at Chandigarh, the system functions as an independent weather forecast system and has undergone trials in high altitude snow-bound areas, sources said.

DGRE’s mandate is to create a geospatial information system for operational planning and military intelligence, provide cutting edge engineering solutions for ensuring safe movement of troops in all kinds of terrain and build artificial intelligence-enabled solutions for deployment.

The system, called analog ensemble, uses meteorological observations of 20–30 previous winter seasons from observatories located in the Shamshawari Range, Pir Panjal Range, and the Great Himalayan Range to predict surface meteorological variables such as temperature, wind, and precipitation for up to 72 hours.

Several recent studies on high-altitude weather patterns, including those conducted by the DRDO have indicated a perceptible change in climate owing to global warming and anthropological activities. This has led to an increase in freak weather events, necessitating monitor and observation.

Studies have noted that the Himalayans have become warm in the last 25 years with significant climate change seen especially after 2000. The amount of snowfall has decreased whereas rainfall has increased, with the snow line in many areas also receding.

In fact, a recent report tabled in Parliament by the Departmentally Related Standing Committee on Water Resources observed that there is a severe shortage of meteorological and monitoring stations in the Indian Himalayan region. Presently DGRE has set up three Mountain Meteorological Centres for avalanche study and the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology has five meteorological and discharge stations located in the high-altitude regions. The Central Water Commission has set up 46 meteorological observation stations in the Himalayan region, out of which only 35 are telemetry-based stations.