Explainer: AIADMK out of NDA, is BJP’s southern plan ‘on track’?

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, September 26

Rajya Sabha MP Kapil Sibal on Tuesday took a dig at the BJP over its Tamil Nadu ally AIADMK walking out of NDA on the eve of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, terming it “camel in the tent”.

“AIADMK exits NDA. Yet another ally leaves them! Those still with them are opportunistic alliances with no ideological glue: Pawar & Shinde in Maharashtra & alliances in the North East.

“BJP is like the camel in the tent,” he posted on social media, implying that no one could survive with the saffron party.

Remember the fable about an Arab and a camel who shared a tent on one cold night. According to its critics, BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have “overshadowed the NDA concept, almost rendering it redundant.”

Has AIADMK really quit NDA?

AIADMK’s decision to quit NDA is being read as a “major setback for BJP’s southern plans, especially Tamil Nadu”.

Though the unanimous resolution passed at a high-level meeting chaired by party president E Palaniswami did not blame any individual for the break-up of the four-year-old alliance, it appeared directed at BJP state chief K Annamalai.

“With an ulterior motive, the BJP state leadership deliberately defamed Aringar Anna (Annadurai) and late party matriarch J Jayalalithaa as well as incumbent party chief Palaniswami.

“Such malicious, wanton criticism targeting the AIADMK has been going on for a year and has led to deep resentment and outrage among our cadres and office-bearers,” the resolution read.

However, claiming that “all was not over” between BJP and AIADMK, party sources are attributing “other reasons” to the decision than just the “Annamalai factor”.

BJP-AIADMK: Blow hot, blow cold relationship  

The fact is AIADMK has a history of blow-hot-blow-cold relationship with the BJP. Their association dates back to the times of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.

In fact Jayalalithaa was one of the main reasons for the fall of the Vajpayee government. However, the two parties went on to join hands for the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, AIADMK stayed away but for 2019 Lok Sabha, the alliance was revived.

The alliance persisted through the 2021 assembly elections which the DMK won. With the BJP attempting inroads into the Dravidian political landscape, its partnership with AIADMK was vital.

Tamil Nadu sends 39 members to the Lok Sabha. Apparently, BJP wanted to contest at least 15 of the 39 seats in the state.

Observers say Annamalai may be one of the factors but the reason for AIADMK’s current state of unhappiness goes beyond his “aggressive brand of politics and trying to punch above BJP’s weight.” 

Parting on “mutual understanding”?  

Amid the Sanatana Dharma row generated by ruling DMK minister Udhaynidhi Stalin, AIADMK leaders had complained to the BJP president JP Nadda about “the aggressive nature of Annamalai’s politics and some of his critical remarks”. 

However, the BJP central leadership backed Annamalai, leading to AIADMK’s decision to break ties.

Though sources claim the parting is due to “strategic reasons and mutual understanding” in mind the current political circumstances in the state.

“Given the current situation with DMK going all aggressive with its anti-Sanatana Dharma ideology, there was no way AIADMK could have done well in the upcoming Lok Sabha by staying with BJP,” they say.

Resentment has been brewing among AIADMK ranks. While one of the factors may be the BJP’s inclination towards former chief minister O Panneerselvam (OPS), the sources claim the two parties will contest separately and come together for a “post-poll alliance if need be”.

Similarity in DMK, AIADMK ideologies         

Udhayanidhi Stalin’s anti-Sanatana Dharma remarks to gain political traction in a state dominated by Dravidian politics may be the key reasons why AIADMK felt the need to part, observers say. 

Udhayanidhi’s statement brought back the focus on the roots of DMK which emerged in the wake of non-Brahmin political movement and Dravidian separatism.

Tamil Nadu’s ruling party has its roots in the Self-Respect Movement started by EV Ramasamy ‘Periyar’ and AIADMK, which was founded by MG Ramachandran in October 1972, is its breakaway faction.

Supporting opposition to caste and religion, the movement positioned itself as a rationalist movement against social evils—ideals that influenced the state’s politics and parties, including the two lead political players DMK and the AIADMK. 

Periyar and ‘Anna’ largely form the basis of political ideologies of both the parties.

According to scholars, the political movement was a strong reaction to the Brahmin dominance of the administrative, cultural, educational, political, and religious spheres with the basic objective to eradicate the “imbalance” in initial stages. In the later stages, it became more radical postures.

BJP’s southern plan

Sources say that the BJP has major hopes from Karnataka, Telengana and Andhra Pradesh. 

Karnataka ally JD-S is seeking at least six of the 28 seats in Karnataka. 

In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 25 of these seats. “Overall the BJP is hoping to get at least 50 of these 130 seats,” say observers.

BJP has lost major allies in states like Maharashtra, Bihar, Punjab and now Tamil Nadu and hopes to do make gains from southern states—Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and UT Puducherry.

There are 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 39 in Tamil Nadu, 17 in Telangana, 28 in Karnataka, and one in Puducherry. 

Going by their electoral track record, NDA allies may not look very impressive but in BJP’s calculations they will all contribute significantly, say analysts.

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