Explainer: 'Intense spell' of rain, snow in Western Himalayan Region soon; temperatures to rise gradually in Northwest; expect early summer in 2024 as well

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, February 15

Hovering in the range of 8-12°C over most parts of Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan as on date, temperatures are all set to rise by 2-3°C in a couple of days, as per the weather office. According to the IMD, temperatures are “above normal over rest parts of North India”.

Today the lowest minimum temperature of 5.8°C was reported in Punjab’s Amritsar. However, day and night temperatures are already above normal over many parts of India, including North, Central and Southern parts of the country. The double whammy of global warming and ongoing El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have started manifesting in many regions of the northern hemisphere, including India, say experts.

Fresh Western Disturbance on the way

Meanwhile, a fresh active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India from February 17, bringing the much needed rain and snow in the region.

Northwest India experienced the second driest January in the past 124 years in 2024, as per the weather office.

“Fairly widespread to widespread light/moderate rainfall/snowfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning and hail is expected between February 17 and February 20 with isolated heavy rainfall/snowfall over Western Himalayan Region from February 18 to February 20.

“Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorms, lightning and hail with gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 gusting to 50 kmph) are likely over Punjab during February 18 and February 20; Haryana-Chandigarh, West Uttar Pradesh from February 19 to February 21 and over Rajasthan on February 19,” it said

Early summers?

According to reports, daily maximum temperatures in many parts of South India are ruling 4-8°C above the normal. Though North India witnessed below-average temperatures and cold waves in January and the first half of February, the situation is expected to begin changing henceforth.

There is a possibility of early summers in the northwest, including in hill states that received less than normal snowfall this season.

Notably, temperatures have been rising in February for the past couple of years.

The ongoing El Nino event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures, both on land and in the ocean, as per the World Meteorological Organisation.

Experts say El Nino impacts on global temperature “typically play out in the year after its development” and that “2024 is expected to be warmer than 2023—the warmest year on record.” 

“El Nino impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas said a few weeks ago.

The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a “double whammy” of an exceptionally strong El Nino and climate change.