Hindu Kush Himalayas to see 2°C above normal this monsoon: Report

The entire Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, which includes India, Nepal and Pakistan, is expected to see temperatures 2°C above normal and and an above-average monsoon. During the monsoon season (July-September) in Himalayan countries, average temperatures typically range from 8-12°C.

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The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), which has analysed the data of global and national meteorological agencies, has warned of flashfloods, landslides and glacial lake bursts in the region during the monsoon.

“With floods being the leading cause of deaths and economic damage in the HKH region, and close to three-quarters (72.5 per cent) of all floods from 1980 to 2024 occurring during the summer monsoon, experts have warned disaster agencies and communities to brace for a possible rise in climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and ecosystems,” the ICIMOD said.

Monsoon is the major source of precipitation in the HKH region and has a significant impact on the region's rivers. With intense or prolonged monsoon, there is an increased risk of flashfloods, debris floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods.

"Forecasts the researchers have studied have unanimously predicted a hotter monsoon across the entire mountain range with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of HKH region. Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods and landslides and have long-term impacts on glaciers and snow reserves. Lower rainfall, meanwhile, particularly in water-stressed countries such as Afghanistan, may pose risks to food and water security," says Arun Bhakta Shrestha, senior adviser, ICIMOD.

The ICIMOD report provides a synthesis of predictions from the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Copernicus Climate Change Service and national agencies.

Temperature rise, combined with wetter monsoons, can also raise the risk of heat stress and waterborne disease outbreaks, such as dengue, experts say.

South Asia has been wetter than average in recent years, except 2023, a major report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) issued last month confirmed. The organisation forecasts that this trend will continue until 2029. WMO has repeatedly emphasised the need for increased investment in climate services and early warning systems with a focus on building the capacity of national meteorological and hydrological services.

“Given the huge population sizes in the HKH region and greater exposure to environmental risks, it’s worrying that there is scarcity of climate data from the region. We need global climate banks and knowledge partners to work with governments to bring more state-of-the-art forecasting tools to this region, to strengthen disaster readiness,” says Sarthak Shrestha, remote-sensing and geo-information associate at ICIMOD.