IMD predicts above-normal monsoon, says El Nino conditions will be neutral

India will experience above-normal rainfall this monsoon, the India Meteorological Department said today.

However, Ladakh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and the North-East will experience below-normal rainfall.

The seasonal rainfall in the country from June to September is estimated to be 105 per cent of the long period average (LPA). The LPA of the seasonal rainfall in the country as a whole for the period is 87 cm.

However, there is no clarity about the onset date of the monsoon. Usually, the southwest monsoon enters Kerala in early June and thereafter covers the country by early July. The rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September.

IMD Director General M Mohapatra has ruled out an El Nino this monsoon.

“The El Nino conditions will be neutral,” he said.

Neutral El Nino conditions lead to a more balanced monsoon and rule out the chance of drought.

The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture sector. Kharif sowing, which starts with the rains, accounts for about 60 per cent of the crop production.

Between 1901 and 2022, neutral El Nino-southern oscillation was observed during 42 seasons, of which 30 years saw an above-average rainfall.

Secretary (Ministry of Earth Sciences) M Ravichandran said Tamil Nadu usually did not get any rain in the southwest monsoon.

“However, in the past few years, the state used to receive monsoon during this season. This year, it will not,” he said.

Ravichandran, however, said it was too early to give a specific forecast about the regional distribution of rainfall across four monsoon months.

The IMD classifies “normal” rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is considered below normal while precipitation below 90 per cent of the LPA is termed deficient.