India’s fertility rate to touch 1.3 in 2050, says Lancet study

New Delhi, March 21

India’s total fertility rate (TFR) will reduce to 1.29 in 2050 and 1.04 by 2100, according to research published in The Lancet.

In 1950, India had a TFR of 6.18 which reduced to 4.6 in 1980 and in 2021 it reduced further to 1.91. The average number of children per woman needed to maintain a stable population size of 2.1.

These numbers were found to be in line with global trends, where the Total Fertility Rate was over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 and fell to 2.2 children per woman in 2021. These figures have been projected to fall to 1.8 and 1.6 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.

The study projects that 155 of 204 (76%) countries will be below the replacement level of fertility by 2050. By 2100 the number of countries falling below the replacement level is predicted to further increase to 198 of 204 (97%).

The study found that there were 12.9 crore livebirths the world over in 2021 — an increase from roughly 9.3 crore in 1950, but a decline from the peak of 14.2 crore in 2016.

In India, there were more than 1.6 crore and over 2.2 crore livebirths in 1950 and 2021. The number is projected to fall to 1.3 crore in 2050.

The high fertility in these low-income regions, particularly in some countries and territories in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will result in a demographically divided world, the researchers said in the study.

The majority of children will be born in some of the poorest regions in the world, with low-income countries’ share in the global livebirths almost doubling from 18 per cent to 35 per cent from 2021 to 2100, the researchers projected.