Temperature above 26 degrees Celsius in January, is winter season already over?
Following the warmest year on record in 2024, this January is setting the tone for 2025 with temperatures rising above 26 degrees Celsius. The usual winter chill is missing in Northwest and Central India, with dry westerly winds and bright sunshine contributing to the phenomenon — “disappearing spring”.
Northwest records ‘above normal’ temperatures
According to the weather office, over the past 24 hours, minimum or night temperatures were “markedly above normal” (5 degrees Celsius or more) at isolated places in East Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan; “appreciably above normal” (3 to 5 degrees Celsius) at most places over Indo-Gangetic plains, Central and West India, Assam and Meghalaya, and at isolated places in Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Kerala and Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; and “above normal” (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) at a few places in Gangetic West Bengal and isolated places in Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Punjab, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Rayalaseema.
The lowest minimum temperature in the plains was recorded at 6.1 degrees Celsius in Amritsar (Punjab).
Drop in temperatures expected, but not much
By the weekend, a drop in temperatures is expected but it is not going to be much, say meteorologists.
Along with the prevailing western disturbance, a cyclonic circulation over southwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood may bring some rain or snow over Western Himalayan Region.
As the western disturbance moves away, a dip in temperature is expected from the morning of January 24.
Hardly feels like winter
Rains/snow may bring down the temperature, but does that also mean the return of severe cold? The answer is — unlikely.
A “gradual fall in minimum temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius over Northwest is likely over the next three days and no significant change thereafter,” says the weather office.
The fact is the weather has been undergoing changes due to climate change, and seasons are also changing.
What has been witnessed in the past couple of years is that the winter season is becoming shorter, the spring season is almost not there and it is a direct transition from winters to summers.
Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather says that this year, dry westerly winds in January brought down the moisture and cleaned the air, which in turn reduced the probability of severe fog, presenting clear skies and bright Sun.
“Hill states Himachal and Uttarakhand received less snow and the already delayed winter was over before it even started,” he added.
Earlier, the icy winds from hills would keep the plains shivering till most of January and also February.
‘Disappearing’ Spring
Earlier, the winter season would gradually shift into a pleasant spring season followed by the scorching summers and June-September monsoon season.
However, data shows that not only India is seeing fewer winter days, the pleasantness of the spring in February-March is also missing.
In the past couple of years, December has been quite un-winterlike, and the delayed cooling in January is being followed by strong warming in February, almost all across the northern, western and central parts, including Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Ladakh, and Jammu and Kashmir. Rather, the quick warming has made February feel like March.
After warmest 2024, what next?
With annual mean land surface air temperature across India in 2024 remaining 0.65 degree Celsius above the long-term average, last year was the warmest year on record in India since 1901.
“The annual mean temperature in 2024 was 25.75 degrees Celsius, 0.65 degree above the long-period average, making it the highest recorded since 1901. The average maximum temperature stood at 31.25 degrees Celsius, 0.20 degree above normal, the fourth-highest since 1901,” according to IMD.
The weather office also projected that minimum temperatures across most of India will be “higher than usual in January, with exceptions in parts of eastern, northwest, and west-central regions”.
Maximum or day temperatures are also expected to exceed normal levels for much of the country, except for certain areas in northwest, central, and eastern India, along with central southern peninsular regions.
“Long-term data shows most parts of the country are witnessing a rising trend in minimum temperatures, particularly in the post-monsoon and winter seasons,” says IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
