Indus treaty on hold, but cutting water to Pak years away

A day after India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty 1960 in retaliation to the Pahalgam attack, the government began considering measures to assess the challenges in implementing the move. India has held the Treaty in abeyance and will no longer be required to adhere to its terms.

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Halting flow not easy

Experts say there are two ways to halt water flow to Pakistan — storing water or diverting river flow — both of which present significant challenges. A research paper states that the volume of water from the tributaries could inundate the Kashmir valley, if stored. “We will need large land masses for storage and these may not be easy to find,” it says.

“This means that, based on feasibility, we can now plan water storage or diversion projects on the western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the treaty. Holding it in abeyance does not mean water flow to Pakistan will stop immediately. It introduces substantial uncertainty regarding water security in Pakistan, as India can now plan and do things on western rivers it could not earlier plan and do,” sources said.

Under the treaty, the waters of three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — were allocated to Pakistan, while those of three eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — were allocated to India. Data shows that 80 per cent of Pakistan’s agricultural irrigation needs are met by the three western rivers, which contribute 21 per cent to Pakistan’s GDP and support nearly 45 per cent of its workforce. The western rivers account for over 80 per cent (117 billion cubic metres) of the total flow of the Indus basin.

When asked if this meant Pakistan would lose access to these waters, a source clarified, “Water cannot be stopped abruptly. However, we can explore ways to utilise the waters of the western rivers by assessing the feasibility of storage or diversion projects. These projects could take a decade or longer to complete. Suspending the Treaty is the first step—now we can begin feasibility studies, which were previously not considered.”

India currently has some hydroelectric power projects on the western rivers. The government can now commission reassessment of the sites to devise feasibility projects. "Overall costs, utilisation and benefits would need to be carefully analysed,” the sources said, acknowledging the challenges of constructing storage projects on the western rivers, but added, “With the treaty suspended, storage restrictions no longer apply and we can proceed with such projects.”

Experts say there are two ways to halt water flow to Pakistan — storing water or diverting river flow — both of which present significant challenges. An Observer Research Foundation paper states that the volume of water from the tributaries could inundate the Kashmir valley if stored. “In reservoir volume terms, every year we will need 30 storages the size of Tehri to store the entire volume of these tributaries which is 117 BCM per year. For that we will need large land masses for storage and these may not be easy to find,” the paper says.

On river diversion, it adds diverting the flow of just one of the three rivers would involve construction of a man-made river over hundreds of kilometres and would pose enormous challenges in design, construction and maintenance.

This would entail investment of lakhs of crores of rupees, acquisition of thousands of hectares of land and could take decades to complete, the paper says, adding that Pakistan will not feel the impact of either for at least next 30 to 50 years.