Explainer: Splits in Shiv Sena and NCP add new dimension to Maharashtra politics

This will be the first real test for divided NCP and Shiv Sena; splits in the two regional parties have made the race for 48 constituencies in the state unpredictable, interesting and fiercer, say analysts

Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar. PTI Photo

Tribune Web Desk

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, April 10

Recently, when Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena replaced Hingoli candidate Hemant Patil and dropped sitting MP Bhavana Gawli from Yavatmal-Washim, he had to face some really uncomfortable jibes from his former colleagues in now-rival Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) faction.

Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut claimed that Shinde was “under the BJP’s pressure” and hence could not decide on candidates. Apparently, it was “under pressure” from the BJP, which is trying for a smooth ride for the NDA coalition in the state that sends the second highest (48) members to the Lok Sabha, that Shinde dropped Patil and Gawali after Ramtek MP Krupal Tumane, as per reports

Maharashtra elections get fiercer after splits

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP and the then undivided Shiv Sena won 41 of the 48 seats in the state.

The BJP was the top party with 23 seats followed by the undivided Sena’s 18.

Of the remaining seats, the undivided NCP won four seats and the Congress, the AIMIM and an Independent one each.

However, much water has flown in Godavari river since then with both Shiv Sena and NCP splitting and one faction aligning with the BJP-led NDA and the other with the INDIA alliance.

A sizable number of the original Sena and NCP are now allied with the BJP, making the situation both interesting as well as unpredictable, some say.

While in Sena, Eknath Shinde jumped ship to join the BJP, in the Nationalist Congress Party Ajit Pawar ditched uncle Sharad Parar to join the ruling alliance in the state, led by Shinde.

According to analysts, the splits in key regional parties have made the battle for the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra fiercer.

“The focus remains on traditional issues like unemployment, inflation, caste and farmer suicides but the splits have added a whole new dimension to the polls which has made them more unpredictable than ever before. From a pure political point of view, it will be interesting to see how voters respond to the split in the two regional parties,” they add.

Both Sena and NCP may have lot to answer

Both Sena and NCP may have a lot to answer the voters, they say

In the elections to the 288-member Assembly in 2019, the BJP contested independently and won around 105 seats, the undivided Sena 56 and undivided NCP 54 and Congress 44.

However, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena won the majority, following differences over the government formation, the alliance broke, precipitating a political crisis.

In November 2019, undivided Shiv Sena, undivided NCP, and Congress formed the government under a new alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi with Uddhav Thackeray as the Chief Minister.

In June 2022, Uddhav Thackeray resigned after a faction of MLAs led by Shinde split from Shiv Sena and allied with the BJP.

Shinde was sworn in as Chief Minister and Devendra Fadnavis as the deputy Chief minister. Later Ajit Pawar-led NCP MLAs also broke away and joined the ruling coalition.

The issues

Citing the example of Vidarbha, observers say in 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance lost only one seat in the region. However, there has been some perceptible shifts due to the break-ups, and recently after Shinde government’s decision on Kunbis OBC.

“Basically the entire NDA is depending upon the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP’s line which includes issues like Hindutva, nationalism, ‘labharthis’, Ram temple etc. It remains to be seen if supporters who voted for undivided NCP find appeal in hardcore BJP messaging amid issues like inflation, unemployment, and caste concerns.

“Shinde government’s decision to give Kunbi Marathas OBC caste certificate appears to have upset the dominant OBC community in Vidarbha who are seen as supporters of the BJP. In 2014 BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won all 10 seats in Vidarbha,” they add.

The polls to the 48 seats in Maharashtra will be held in five phases on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13 and May 20.

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