Monsoon set to advance further, likely to keep date with Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, June 17

Losing momentum after reaching Sikkim in the Northeast at least 10 days in advance powered by cyclone Remal, the much-awaited Southwest Monsoon is expected to advance further over the next four days, according to the India Meteorological Department. The good news, as per Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather, is that the seasonal rains are expected to keep their date with the Northwest—Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh.

The rains are likely to hit the National Capital around the normal expected date of arrival—June 27—with a margin error of two days. Aided by a Western Disturbance, the moisture-laden easterly winds will also bring light rains to the Northwest around June 21/22, he added  

Notably, the Northwest, except some parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, are expected to see “normal rains” due to the strengthening of the La Nina factor.

After an early start in the southern and northeastern parts, monsoon hit a pause button, entering into a weak phase, spelling trouble for northern and central parts of the country struggling with extreme temperatures and heatwaves.  

The June-September rains bring nearly 70% of the rain India needs to water its agricultural tracks, replenish reservoirs, aquifers and groundwater and cater power and drinking water needs of people.

As on date, the all-India rainfall deficit is 18 %, with the Northwest leading the pack with a deficiency of 65%. The southern peninsula, meanwhile, is surplus with 22% extra.

Currently, the rains are running behind the schedule over large parts of Central and East India, including eastern parts of Maharashtra; the northern half of Chhattisgarh; the entire Odisha and West Bengal; and eastern parts of Jharkhand and Bihar. 

The northern limit of monsoon continues to pass through Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, Vizianagaram and Islampur.

Meteorologists say conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh and northwest Bay of Bengal, some parts of Gangetic West Bengal, remaining parts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal and some parts of Bihar over the next four days. 

The slowdown and the heat is also due to westerly winds prevailing over the Indo-Gangetic plains. Plus, there has been no low pressure area or any significant system over the Bay of Bengal to “pull the monsoon current”.  

“From June 19, monsoon will start progressing again and cover Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Odisha by June 22/23,” says Palawat.

In fact, with La Nina conditions strengthening around the end of July, most regions are expected to get rains on the “above side of normal” in July, August and September, except some parts in the East and Northeast which may get lesser rains.   

“It is a temporary weakening in the surge, quite normal in any year,” as per IMD officials. 

They add that extreme temperatures being witnessed in the plains are due to multiple factors, including absence of strong Western Disturbances (WDs), westerlies and global climate factors. 

Ever since May, WDs have been weak and limited to the upper reaches. 

The absence of strong WDs, lack of clouds and rains, direct sunrays and heat-loaded westerly winds from Pakistan have all led to worsening of the heatwave conditions. Many parts across the plains of the North, Central and Western India have been recording maximum temperatures markedly above normal.

Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions

Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely to continue over many parts of North India during next two days and gradually abate thereafter under the influence of approaching Western Disturbance towards Northwest India.