Russia-Ukraine peace talks: Diplomacy churns, yet hurdles persist

After hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several western European leaders at the White House in Washington, US President Donald Trump announced that he has begun preparations for a direct meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky to work out ways for bringing out the three-and-a-half-year long war between Russia and Ukraine to an end.

The announcement also came in the wake of a 40-minute telephone conversation between Trump and Putin, who had a three hours face-to-face meeting in Alaska on August 15 to chart out a course for peace. Trump called Putin after his talks with Zelensky but before meeting the European delegation, the entire duration of which had lasted several hours.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte rushed to join the Trump—Zelensky meet to support Ukraine over concerns about European security.

“I called President Putin and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelensky,” Trump said in a social media post after the talks. “After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat — the two Presidents plus myself. This was a very good, early step for a war that has been going on for almost four years.”

While there is no official word yet from Russia on Putin agreeing to meet Zelensky, Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, has been quoted in Russian media saying that both Trump and Putin “spoke in favour” of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. He also said that more senior negotiators would be appointed for direct talks.

Among the peace options put forward by Trump after his meet with Putin was that Ukraine cede territory held by Russia and freeze the frontlines as they were. Russia has occupied almost 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory in the eastern part of the country and about 3 — 3.5 million Ukrainians are said to be living under occupation. Zelensky has declined to surrender any territory and even attacks on both sides continue.

The ongoing war has political, diplomatic and economic implications not only for the two warring nations and their European neighbourhood, but also for much of the world beyond, including India. Western sanctions on Russia have impacted geopolitical dynamics and global trade.

Zelensky’s second peace sojourn

This is Zelensky’s second visit to Washington in six months, with the first one held in February — also on the subject of US support to Ukraine in the war against Russia —turning out to be a failure after a public spat with Trump and his vice president JD Vance. The disastrous fallout of the first meeting notwithstanding, Trump seemed to warmly greet Zelensky, who this time traded his usual fatigues that had earlier invited snide comments for a more formal attire.

According to reports emerging from Washington, much of the discussion centered on how to put in place security guarantees for Ukraine and end the war, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives on either side, while Trump pushed for a trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelensky.

At a news conference after the White House meet, Zelensky said that the discussion on security guarantees included plans for Ukraine to purchase $90 billion in American weapons through Europe and that the United States would buy drones from Ukraine, for which a formal agreement would be worked out later.

Terming his talks with the US President as "the best conversation with Trump so far", Zelensky said, "This is very important that the United States gives such a strong signal and is ready for security guarantees." Trump and the European Union leaders will discuss more about security guarantees, he added. Before the meeting with the EU leaders, Trump and Zelensky held a public meeting and then a private meeting.

What European leaders said

French President Macron suggested the presence of a European leader at the talks between Trump, Putin and Zelensky. "We've worked very hard during the past few years to have a peace, which is a robust and long-standing peace. This is why the idea of a trilateral meeting is very important because this is the only way to fix it," Macron said. "I think, as a follow-up, we would need probably a quadrilateral meeting. Because when we speak about security guarantees, we speak about the whole security of the European continent," he added.

Western media reports also say that after the meetings, Macron also expressed skepticism that Putin would be willing to negotiate. “I am not convinced that President Putin also wants peace. “His ultimate goal is to gain as much territory as he can, to weaken Ukraine,” he said at a news conference.

British Prime Minister Starmer said, “I think we could take a really important step forward today, a historic step actually to come out of this meeting in terms of security for Ukraine and security in Europe,” he said. He added that Trump's indication of security guarantees corresponds with the work of the "Coalition of the Willing" and that the coalition is "prepared to step up to the plate" when it comes to ensuring Ukraine's security.

NATO Secretary General Rutte said that Trump's security guarantees offer for Ukraine is equal to a "breakthrough" in securing a truce deal for Ukraine. “The fact that you have said ‘I am willing to participate in the security guarantees’ is a big step, it’s really a breakthrough, and it makes all the difference. So also thank you for that,” Rutte said, adding that the killings in Ukraine and the destruction of its infrastructure have to be stopped.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for a ceasefire in Ukraine and urged the leaders to put pressure on Russia. "I can't imagine that the next meeting would take place without a ceasefire. So let's work on that and let's try to put pressure on Russia," he said. The path is open for more serious negotiations to be held on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, he added.

Finland's President Alexander Stubb said that Team Europe and Team United States are around the same table, helping Ukraine, describing it as a "very much symbolic" fact. "I think in the past two weeks, we’ve probably had more progress in ending this war than we have in the past three and a half years,” he said.

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that security guarantees are among the many important topics for discussions. "We will talk about many important topics. The first one is security guarantees, how to be sure that it won't happen again, which is the precondition of every kind of peace," Meloni said.

Ceasefire or no ceasefire

Observers say that the latest multilateral meet in Washington was a cordial but inconclusive push to end the Russia – Ukraine war. The visiting leaders were scheduled to have dinner at the White House, but left abruptly in the evening, and held separate media briefings at different locations.

The European leaders had put up a united front and some argued for a ceasefire to be put in place before further negotiations with Russia, but this suggestion was gently rebuffed by Trump.

While all participants appreciated the move for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine at the highest level, there seemed to be some issues over the precise nature of the security guarantees for Ukraine and the implications of Ukraine’s possibility of surrendering any territory to Russia.

Some western media reports say that few tangible signs of progress have been made public, nor have any specific details worked out. Any movement toward an end to the war would require follow-through from Trump, sweeping concessions from Zelensky and a willingness to stop attacks on Ukraine from Putin.

Merz and Macron publicly stated at the White House that moving forward would require a ceasefire, something Putin did not want. Trump on his part said, “We will give them very good protection and very good security.”

India and the Russia-Ukraine war

Just a few hours before the Washington meet, Russian President Putin called up Prime Minister Narendra Modi and briefed him about his meeting with Trump in Alaska on August 15 and shared his assessments on the current situation. In fact, before proceeding to Washington, Zelensky had also spoken to Modi over the telephone.

“Thank my friend, President Putin, for his phone call and for sharing insights on his recent meeting with President Trump in Alaska. India has consistently called for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict and supports all efforts in this regard. I look forward to our continued exchanges in the days to come,” PM Modi wrote on X.

India had also welcomed the Trump – Putin meet in Alaska, which Trump had described as successful. “India appreciates the progress made in the Summit. The way forward can only be through dialogue and diplomacy. The world wants to see an early end to the conflict in Ukraine,” the Ministry of External Affairs had said.

While India, which has cordial relations with both Russia and Ukraine, has been advocating for peace and an end to hostilities, it recently came under the fire of Trump’s tariffs for purchasing oil from Russia. The American argument is that India’s oil purchases are funding the Russian war machine, even though there are other counties, including the European Union and the US itself that are buying Russian oil.

Moreover, the war has also had an adverse impact on the supplies of military spares and some other equipment and products from Ukraine and Russia, even though India procured large volumes of oil from Russia by circumventing Western sanctions on Russia. A big component of India’s military inventory is of Soviet/ Russian origin and some manufacturing plants like aviation major Antonov are located in Ukraine.

Trump had earlier this month imposed a tariff of 25 per cent on Indian goods with an additional burden of 25 per cent as penalty for buying Russian oil. After the meeting with Putin in Alaska, however, Trump announced that he may not want to go ahead with the tariffs on India and will take a fresh call after a couple of weeks.

Experts say that the outcome of the ongoing peace moves can have an impact on the levy of tariffs and consequently on foreign trade and GDP. As the wheels of diplomacy churn in the west and potholes are negotiated, for India it is wait and watch with a little breather to address the challenges.